Month: March 2020

The last few days have been like nothing most of us have ever experienced – or are likely to experience again in our lifetimes.

Panic has spread from the streets of Wuhan to the grocery stores of America’s heartland, from nursing homes to the Federal Reserve Board, from the stock market to the gold and silver markets.

Like other asset classes, the precious metals space is being rocked by rapidly accelerating developments, some of which haven’t occurred for decades and some of which haven’t occurred ever.

These unprecedented times are testing the mettle of precious metals investors like never before.

Gold and silver are meant to provide safe haven from financial turmoil. Safe haven demand for physical bullion has indeed surged. The pace of buying has been so furious in recent days that some dealers are literally running out of product to sell, and the scarcity has driven premiums are sharply higher.

So why haven’t gold prices skyrocketed? For one thing, the bullion market is relatively small compared to the highly leveraged futures market that sets spot prices. Gold can get pulled down on any given day for no other reason than panicked traders need to sell it in order to raise cash.

When comparing gold to other assets, however, the monetary metal is performing exactly as it should during a time of crisis. Gold has risen strongly when measured against a crashing stock market over the past few weeks. It has spiked to multi-decade highs versus both crude oil and silver.

The gold:silver ratio has now entered previously uncharted territory. On Monday it spiked to 116:1. Put another way, a single ounce of gold could buy a staggering 116 ounces of silver.

Never has silver been as cheap to acquire in real terms as it is today. Never has the silver market traded so wildly disconnected from its fundamentals. Never have the silver bullion and silver futures markets diverged so greatly.

Whereas shortages and premium spikes are taking hold in American Eagles and other popular silver bullion products, the opposite is occurring on the exchanges. For example, one exchange-traded silver vehicle, Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV), briefly traded down to a record 10% discount to its own net asset value.

On Monday, another inexplicable trading anomaly occurred. On a day when the general stock market suffered a 13% nosedive, the Silver Miners ETF (SIL) surged higher by 13% — and it’s surged again today. Yet spot silver prices had plunged by 12% at the same time.

If silver is down double digits and the equity market is also down double digits, how in the world do silver mining equities rise by double digits?

It makes no sense, unless the markets are completely broken and totally arbitrary at this point. Or unless big money counterintuitively flowed into the mining sector because the silver spot price has lost credibility.

Perhaps mining stock investors believe the actual physical silver market is already beginning to dictate higher prices (as reflected in surging premiums for silver coins) than what are being quoted in the paper market.

Perhaps we just witnessed a capitulation bottom in silver and at least a temporary peak in investor fear more broadly. The VIX volatility index, also known as the fear index for the stock market, spiked on Monday to exceed the fear levels registered during the depths of the financial crisis in 2008.

When markets are driven by extreme fear, they don’t produce rational outcomes.

Strange, anomalous, and unprecedented price action in certain assets creates once-in-a-lifetime opportunities to profit as investors calm down and come to their senses. For example, you may never again get an opportunity to buy silver at less than 1/100th of the quoted gold price.

Unfortunately, it’s difficult to obtain physical silver at all during moments like these. Bargain hunters have cleared out coin dealers of most of their inventories.

The upshot is that a new uptrend in silver, and a corresponding narrowing of the gold:silver ratio, can be expected to extend for years. You should have plenty of opportunities to buy on the way up before the metal becomes expensive.

There is no need to panic buy in fear of missing the bottom. We don’t know whether it will be a “V”-shaped bottom or one that drags out and gets re-tested again in the weeks ahead.

The current economic crisis is much broader in scope than previous crises centered on Wall Street and the banking system. The Fed can’t fix it by cutting rates to zero and pumping more doses of Quantitative Easing into the bond market.

This is a Main Street crisis triggered by an invisible killer that will claim many more victims. President Trump and his top medical advisors now fully expect the number of infections to grow and the strain on the medical system to get worse before it gets better.

Will the carnage on Wall Street and in metals markets get worse, too? Nobody knows for sure. Nobody could have foreseen that a black swan event like a global pandemic would trigger a near total shutdown of the economy.

What we do know is that every other panic selling event in recorded history has produced fantastic buying opportunities for investors who didn’t lose their shirts or their minds. This one will likely be no different.

Source: Streetwise Reports   03/16/2020

Shares of Alamos Gold traded 15% higher after the firm reported that it has repurchased a 3% net smelter return royalty on its Island Gold mine located in northern Ontario.

Intermediate gold producer Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI:TSX; AGI:NYSE) today announced that “it has entered into an agreement to acquire and cancel a 3% net smelter return royalty payable on production from the Island Gold mine for total cash consideration of $54 million (CA$75 million).”

The company indicated that “the royalty was acquired from a privately held company and is payable on gold production within four patented claims that comprise the majority of currently defined Mineral Reserves and Resources within the Island Gold deposit.” The firm advised that acquiring and eliminating the royalty will immediately reduce operating costs, increase operating cash flow and provide increased exposure to significant exploration potential at the Island Gold mining project.

The firm indicated that “as of December 31, 2019, the claims subject to the royalty contained 0.9 Moz of Mineral Reserves, representing 71% of Island Gold’s total Mineral Reserves and 1.1 Moz of Inferred Mineral Resources.”

Due to the elimination of the royalty payment, the firm now expects a “$40 per ounce, or 7%, decrease in Island Gold’s 2020 total cash cost guidance to between $480 and $520 per ounce and $40 per ounce decrease in mine-site all-in sustaining cost guidance to between $740 and $780 per ounce”.

The company’s President and CEO John A. McCluskey commented, “The acquisition of the royalty further reduces costs at what is already a low-cost operation while also increasing our exposure to the tremendous exploration upside. Since we acquired Island Gold in 2017, the Mineral Reserve and Resource base has doubled with the deposit approaching four million ounces across all categories. With the deposit open laterally and down-plunge across several areas of focus, we see excellent potential for this growth to continue at a greatly reduced royalty on future production.”

Alamos is headquartered in Toronto, Ontario, and is an intermediate gold producer with diversified production from three North America operating mines. The company’s mining projects includes the Young-Davidson and Island Gold mines in northern Ontario and the Mulatos mine in Mexico. The firm employs greater than 1,700 people at all of its combined locations.

Alamos Gold has a market capitalization of around $1.5 billion with approximately 391.1 million shares outstanding. AGI shares opened at $3.41 (-$0.465, -12.00%) over Friday’s closing price of $3.875. The stock has traded today between $3.34 and $4.94 per share and is currently trading at $4.57 (+$0.68, +17.48%).

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Disclosure:
1) Stephen Hytha compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. He or members of his household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. He or members of his household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
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3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

( Companies Mentioned: AGI:TSX; AGI:NYSE,
)

Source: Michael Ballanger for Streetwise Reports   03/16/2020

Sector expert Michael Ballanger breaks down the latest market moves and charts a “course of action.”

As I begin the weekly missive here on Thursday, the U.S. equity markets are experiencing the worst daily assault since that fateful day back in 1987, when the Dow lost 23% in a single trading session, sending thousands of Gucci-clad stockbrokers to the Sears re-fit aisle. Being the incredibly prescient individual that I am (tongue firmly planted in cheek), I have attempted four times since 6 a.m. to put words to paper, and four times I have deleted every paragraph and no fewer than ten different charts.

I have tried humor, I have tried humility, I have tried hubris, I have even tried cheerleading. Alas, at the end of the day, I am proceeding on the premise that followers of my work want a simple opinion on one thing: tactics. What are the tactics that I intend to employ to show a positive return for the year 2020? (Subscribers will have my blueprint in the subscriber section, which may be accessed at this shamelessly offered e-mail address of miningjunkie216@outlook.com.)

First, I want to talk about the gold market and its pitiable inability to hedge one’s net worth against a market meltdown. While the chart below clearly shows that gold investors are still (barely) ahead, 0.27% versus the S&P down 16.09% and the DJIA down 18.76%, the strategy was based on the assumption, from its behavior in 1987 and 2009–2011, that gold would advance in the opposite direction to stocks, but that in the event of a crash, it would initially suffer, then outperform.

However, it had lost a good deal of the 2020 gains in Thursday’s session—at one point, it was down over $80 per ounce as obvious margin selling took its toll. While it is indeed outperforming stocks, it is still getting smacked, and that is little solace to investors in the gold miner exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and junior explorer/developers (not to mention silver).

COT Report: Observe the vast differential between the Large Speculators and the Commercials, where the open interest was at record levels. With the late-week crash, massive short covering by the Commercials will be matched off against similar capitulatory selling by Large Specs. It is part and parcel of all that is wrong with this incessant “control freak” tendency whereby the New York banks, with support from the D.C. morons, allow gold to be capped and stocks to be “bid,” which played out again by week’s end in spades.

Twelve years ago, the Fed stepped up and bailed out the banks as a reward to the American people, told them to buy stocks, and then juiced the markets to record highs in the ensuing years. This afternoon, in response to a highly stressed 30-year bond auction, the Fed added $3 trillion to the REPO facility. It remains obvious to this investor that the problem in the markets is indeed a financial crisis, as opposed to the protests of the pundits and market gurus that are sluffing this off as “simply” a health crisis (it’s that too).

I “faded” the immortal words of the late Marty Zweig, whose #1 trading rule was “Don’t fight the tape and don’t fight the Fed.” Back in 2001, and in 2009, and again in December 2018—as in all three instances—the major averages reversed and then went on to new highs. I would be sitting in my humble office humming darts at pictures of Bernanke or Yellen or Powell as the “invisible hand” of the New York Fed swooped down and saved the day, just as the averages were threatening to enter either correction mode or bear market mode.

Through the past eleven-year bull market, the stock market’s role as an economic barometer faded purely because of the machinations and interventions of the mystical miasma of late afternoon shenanigans in all markets deemed “crucial to National Security” or, more appropriately, the reelection of the incumbent.

So, with the CNN Fear and Greed Index at “1” and abject terror filling the hearts of all investors (amateur and pro), I turned bullish on Thursday for the first time in over a decade. That all asset classes got smoked that day in a gut-wrenching drawdown of immense proportion is a testimonial to the leverage currently in use across the entire spectrum of financial markets. Thirty-something math geeks using sophisticated algorithms deduce that a 10-standard deviation move in a position in which they have notional value fifteen times the asset value of their fund could never occur. And yet it does. And they get wiped out.

In a manner not unlike the spread of the COVID-19 microbe across the planet, the “Sell Everything” contagion infected the vast majority of over-leveraged funds, with their prime brokers issuing margin calls at an alarming (but not surprising) pace. Remember, conditions like these are the fertile breeding grounds for new bull markets.

I began to finish the weekly missive Friday afternoon with gold down US$85 per ounce (–5%) and silver down US$1.50 (–9.5%), placing gold in correction territory and silver in a full-on bear market. While I have largely avoided the bulk of the drawdown by avoiding the senior and junior gold ETFs, a late-week flash crash has them all at shockingly low levels.

With the Dow down nearly 2,000 points on Thursday afternoon, I fired off a tweet to my followers that was, in itself, one of about five I sent out. But the one shown below was truly how I felt going into the last hour of trading. I was putting my money where my mouth was, and bought two-thirds of a large position that was bleeding from the eye sockets by the time the final bell sounded. “I missed the turn in 2018 and 2008—ain’t gonna fight the Fed and the Tape this time (Thank you Marty Zweig)” was my message, and with Friday’s 1,985 pop, it had paid off in spades.

Now, if I started taking victory laps because I bought into a crashing S&P running a sub-20 relative strength index (RSI), I would be seen as somewhat disingenuous, because while my handful of SPY calls were doubling, my carefully constructed GGMA portfolio was taking a pounding. While I have been overweight the physical metals and seriously underweight the senior and junior miner ETFs, they took GLD and SLV down hard, with losses topping 3% and 8% respectively, a development I totally did not expect.

Nevertheless, the point here is that now is the time to go overweight the miners and underweight the physical metals, because of this one glaringly expressive chart, which plots the price of the senior miners (GDX:US) against the price of gold (GLD:US). I am not going to launch into a mindless rant about interference and intervention and manipulation, but just as “magical” was the reversal in stocks in the wee hours of the Friday morning (down 600 to up 700 Dow points in less than an hour), you can take to the bank the notion that part of this theatrical display of market dynamics involved sending a powerful message to the naysayers by way of an April 2013-style carpet-bombing of the precious metals, two historic adversaries of equity market cheerleaders (like Larry Kudlow).

The chart shown above has the GDX plotted against the price of gold, and based upon the Friday close, the senior gold miner ETF is now back to valuation levels from January 2016, when the HUI hit 99.17 after a large European sovereign wealth fund puked out its entire gold miner holdings in one session, creating a decade-long bottom. The action in the precious metals and mining shares this week was at once both irrational and bizarre, setting up a generational opportunity for traders and conservative investors alike.

A few weeks ago, I wrote: “I don’t want to hear or read excuses that blame JP Morgan or HSBC or the Crimex or the SEC or the “cartel”; I want silver to break free of the shackles of intervention and interference and get into gear today. Period. If silver fails to launch into the slingshot effect, then the integrity and validity of the gold move is suspect and that goes for the Gold Miners as well.”

Now we know precisely what the silver market was telling us. And yet, despite the carnage, gold has not yet entered an official bear market. It is in a full-blown correction but if we hold $1,363, the bull remains alive and well, and therein lies the reason that I was a buyer of the miners on Friday, and will continue to do so this week.

For your interest and review, I include the two charts below, of the GDX and GDXJ, which demonstrate just how egregiously oversold they are. RSI readings of 21.19 and 19.01 are synonymous with every bottom that I have ever encountered, and this time is no different. On a side note, the social media comments from all of the newsletter writers were completely consistent with prior bottoms, and I fully expect the usual gang to claim credit for forecasting the bloodbath. But in the final analysis, everyone got smoked, and the heroes are those that lost the least. That is part and parcel of market crashes, and I consider myself fortunate to have a hefty cash position in my trading account to deploy into issues representing such phenomenal value.

The chart posted above is all you need to see in order to ascertain the right course of action. The steps taken this week by the central banks to loosen monetary condition, plus the fiscal measures announced this afternoon by the POTUS, were and are designed to bolster stock prices and re-elect the incumbent. It is really that simple, and while earnings are going to be challenged due to the disruptions caused by COVID-19, the miners generate a ton of cash flow with a $1,500 gold price.

It was a difficult week for all, and it is my sincere wish that everyone stays safe and rides out the current storm in the company of healthy family and friends.

Originally trained during the inflationary 1970s, Michael Ballanger is a graduate of Saint Louis University where he earned a Bachelor of Science in finance and a Bachelor of Art in marketing before completing post-graduate work at the Wharton School of Finance. With more than 30 years of experience as a junior mining and exploration specialist, as well as a solid background in corporate finance, Ballanger’s adherence to the concept of “Hard Assets” allows him to focus the practice on selecting opportunities in the global resource sector with emphasis on the precious metals exploration and development sector. Ballanger takes great pleasure in visiting mineral properties around the globe in the never-ending hunt for early-stage opportunities.

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Disclosure:
1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Michael Ballanger and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. Michael Ballanger is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in any aspect of the article preparation. Michael Ballanger was not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article.
2) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
3) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

Charts provided by the author.

Michael Ballanger Disclaimer:
This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Source: Bob Moriarty for Streetwise Reports   03/15/2020

Bob Moriarty of 321gold explains why he believes the world is in uncharted waters.

We have sailed off the map of the known world into totally uncharted waters. No one, including me, knows exactly where we are or where we are headed.

But hic sunt dracones is an excellent warning, here be dragons. If I was still flying and needed to give a brief to my passengers, I’d be saying, “I have some good news and some bad news. First the bad news. We have flown off the edge of my maps and we are totally lost without a clue as to where we are.”

“On the other hand, we are making great groundspeed.”

The coronavirus continues to spread out of control. The best guess that I have been able to find about how many people would die came from the guy who led the fight against the SARS virus. This professor believes as many as 60% of the people in the world could catch the virus. According to him 45 million people in the world could die. Best guesses say that somewhere between 40 and 100 million people died of the Spanish Flu a hundred years ago. But it was a world with a third the population of today.

In a normal year 57 million or so people die. After all, everyone is going to die of something. So adding on an additional 45 million is hardly the end of the world. Unless of course you happen to be one of those 45 million or related to them.

The real killer is going to be the knock-on effects of the virus and not many people are discussing them. That’s because we are off the map and in uncharted waters where frankly governments fear to swim.

Health care is going to be rationed. At some point if you are in the higher risk categories you will be sent home to die. We don’t have the hospital beds or ventilators for all those who might need them. In Italy in one area, if you were over 60 you were out of luck. And I don’t know anyone in the US yet talking about it but we have the most expensive medical care in the world. Who is going to pay the hundreds of billions of dollars for emergency care? Hospitals will be packed with virus patients and for anyone else suffering from anything else, going to the hospital will be a death sentence.

According to the gurus, 59% of Americans can’t find $1000 to cope with an emergency. When vast segments of business are simply shut down for weeks or months, how are people going to pay their bills, much less cope with an emergency? Look for property crime to explode higher.

Locks keep out honest people, not crooks. And with the police now stealing more from Americans than the burglars do, whom are you going to go to? In San Francisco the police don’t even want to report property crime unless it’s over $1000. That’s called a license to steal. What happens when the virus hits the street people in LA and San Francisco and Portland? Who is going to pay?

Well before the virus became big news, it was obvious to a lot of serious financial writers, including me, that the financial system was about to blow sky high. I started predicting the crash over a year ago. The Fed postponed it by flooding the financial system with cash starting in late September but the flood has become a tidal wave lately. Behind the curtain something very serious is happening but they don’t toss $5.5 trillion into the coffee and donut fund for nothing.

I believe the banking system is about to break on a permanent basis. Most of the people I read seem to think pumping money by central banks can solve the financial problems but let me remind my readers that the central banks pumping unlimited money into the system is what caused the problem. When you have too much debt, you cannot solve your debt problem with even more debt.

In 2007 the financial problem went back to subprime lending. Today out of control borrowing and spending by corporations will drown the banking world with defaults. We will have to have a jubilee and figure out how to go back to honest money. You cannot have an honest financial system or honest government without honest money.

The virus is not the cause of our financial problems or crime issues or stupidity in government. Face it folks, people go to work for the government because they are too lazy to work and too nervous to steal. The founding fathers would be astonished at the circus of clowns we have running government today.

All debt gets paid. It gets paid either by the borrower or by the lender but all debt gets paid. We have the biggest crisis in US and perhaps world history. We can only hope real leadership stands up, speaks out and takes charge.

The alternative is too dreadful to consider.

Bob Moriarty
President: 321gold
Archives
321gold

Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com, with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures and updates on current events affecting both sectors. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds 14 international aviation records.

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Disclosure:
1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Bob Moriarty and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. Bob Moriarty is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in the content preparation. Bob Moriarty was not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article.
2) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
3) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

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