Month: May 2021

Real Investment Advice/Michael Lebowitz/5-12-2021

“A growing deflationary hurricane is churning off the coast. At the same time, a massive inflationary warm front is surging toward us, threatening inflation like we have not seen in forty years.  As if forecasting future economic conditions was not tricky enough, both systems are being fueled in unknown ways by the convergence of historical amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus. The two ominous and encroaching weather systems make economic and market forecasting extremely difficult.”

USAGOLD note: Lebowitz does not mention gold in this analysis. We observe, though, that the greater the difficulty in predicting an economic outcome, the more important gold and silver become.

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ZeroHedge/Michael Every/5-13-2021

“It was the kind of report, like Friday’s payrolls, that Make Data Great Again. One that also shows the whole economic number forecasting business is a silly game when it really matters. Yes, you can tell me what a number will be when that number doesn’t change anything: you just can’t tell me what the number will be when it changes everything. Perhaps the most telling part of the report was that used car prices are surging. As any economist will tell you, as soon as you drive a car off the dealer lot, the price goes down because of the ‘lemon’ factor. Well, a giant lemon meringue custard pie just hit them all in the face. ‘Forecasters are struggling to get a handle on the economy,’ says Bloomberg charitably. You think?”

USAGOLD note:  A slightly (smile) irreverent review of last Friday’s payroll number and Wednesday’s consumer price report courtesy of Rabobank’s Michael Every……

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