Month: May 2021

Is it a temporary blip… or the beginning of a long-term trend? That’s the key question facing consumers, investors, and retirees when it comes to inflation.

There’s no denying that inflation pressures have picked up dramatically over the past 12 months. Price spikes in commodities including copper, grains, gasoline, and lumber tell the story – as do the raging bull markets in equities and housing.

Rapidly rising prices across an array of asset classes are a symptom of excess currency creation.

As economist Milton Friedman famously noted, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”

Friedman wasn’t a gold standard or hard money proponent. Instead, he hoped to persuade monetary authorities to act responsibly!

Given the reckless policies undertaken recently by central bankers at the Fed – zero interest rates, Quantitative Easing to infinity, and “symmetric” (above 2%) inflation targeting – Friedman’s hope was misplaced.

Billionaire Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, warned at his company’s shareholder meeting last weekend, “We are seeing very substantial inflation.”

Home buyers are feeling it. Lumber prices are at an all-time record high after months of relentless rises, helping push home building costs higher by double digits.

So are motorists. The national average price of gasoline at the pump is up more than $1 per gallon compared to a year ago.

The Consumer Price Index surged 0.6% in March, the biggest monthly increase in nearly a decade. An imperfect measure of inflation, the CPI tends to understate real-world cost increases.

Federal Reserve officials insist these extant inflation pressures are “transitory” – a consequence of the rise off the extreme lows in asset markets seen during last year’s pandemic panic. According to the Fed, the economy is merely returning to normal – and as it does inflation will moderate toward Chairman Jerome Powell’s target of about 2% annually.

The problem with the narrative the Fed is peddling on inflation is that U.S. fiscal and monetary policy are still going full blast with “emergency” spending and stimulus. There is no let-up in sight.

The Treasury Department recently reported it expects to borrow $463 billion in the current quarter – spiking the federal deficit to an astounding $2.3 trillion for the full budget year.

Treasury officials acknowledged the Biden administration’s borrowing binge represents hundreds of billions of dollars more in red ink than they previously estimated in February.

The extra borrowing is necessitated by President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID relief bill, which authorized $1,400 stimulus checks, expanded emergency unemployment benefits, and various other handouts.

Generous unemployment payments are having an unintended consequence. Millions of Americans are choosing to stay home and collect benefits rather than work. That is contributing to a labor shortage, one that is especially pronounced in the restaurant and retail industries.

Thanks to competition from all the government handouts, businesses are having to jack up wages and even dangle big signing bonuses to attract workers. Those that haven’t may soon be forced to if as state and federal minimum wage hikes go into effect.

A 1970s style wage-price spiral may not be far off.

Wage-driven inflation hasn’t really hit the U.S. economy in decades. It’s the missing piece in a potential secular trend of rising inflation.

While commodity price spikes are often transitory due to the volatile nature of futures markets, wage pressures once unleashed tend to feed into higher inflation on a more sustained basis. Once wage expectations rise, they tend not to come back down to the earlier level.

Unfortunately, wage earners along with investors and retirees stand to lose purchasing power on any U.S. dollars they receive. The Fed is bent on keeping interest rates depressed to ensure a negative real rate is imposed on savings – an insidious policy which saps away the wealth of savers while transferring some of it to debtors.

The classic inflation hedges of gold and silver remain essential holdings for anyone who wishes to maintain purchasing power over time.

The U.S. dollar’s decline isn’t transitory in nature. It is persistent. Federal Reserve Notes will keep declining in value year after year – the only question is how rapidly.

Nobody knows how high inflation might get in the years ahead.

The Fed claims it has the tools to keep inflation “well anchored” should its rise become a bigger problem. But does it have the will to inflict financial pain upon Wall Street, the big banks, and the U.S. government itself?

They are all addicted to the Fed’s low interest-rate stimulus.

In this environment where the bond market and the entire financial economy is artificially propped up, bubbles never fully burst. Instead, they are constantly being reinflated on a rotating basis.

When inflation expectations become “unanchored,” fear will drive mainstream investors to make dramatic moves to try to protect themselves. The biggest rotation of all could be from dollar-denominated financial assets into tangible assets including physical precious metals.

      

Source: Peter Krauth for Streetwise Reports   05/05/2021

Peter Krauth, editor of the Silver Stock Investor, explains why he believes silver could reach $300.

I know this might sound ridiculous to some, but I think silver could reach $300.

No, I haven’t lost my mind. After all, it’s a metal that’s known for massive rallies.

You see, when silver went through its 1970s bull market, it started from a low of $1.31 in October 1971. By the time it reached its peak in 1980, silver had run all the way up to $49. That was a 37x return.

If we consider that silver was priced at $4.20 in late 2001, a 37x return would take it to about $155. However, I think this bull market could be an order of magnitude larger for a number of reasons, the main ones being debt, credit and money printing.

As a result, I think silver’s ultimate peak could be $300, and I won’t rule out possibly even higher.

Bullish Silver Fundamentals

Most developed and many developing nations have been in multi-year or even multi-decade deficit scenarios. This now looks to have become a permanent state, at least until we reach some sort of global financial reset.

The Institute of International Finance explains how the COVID-19 pandemic response added $24 trillion to the global debt mountain last year, to reach a new all-time record high of $281 trillion.

And interest rates being maintained at 5,000-year lows will only encourage more debt. Couple that with many countries borrowing to meet interest payments, and central banks soaking up much of that new sovereign debt, and inflation havens like precious metals gain strong appeal.

Silver in particular has the added benefit of 50% of its demand being industrial. With unprecedented economic stimulus programs, many favoring green energy, silver is uniquely positioned to profit. What’s more, according to Metals Focus, silver supply was down 4% in 2020 by 42 million ounces. According to the Silver Institute, total supply will rise by 8% this year, though total demand will rise nearly twice as much, by 15%, led by industrial, jewelry and physical demand.

So, the fundamental side of silver demand is looking strong, but the technical side is also very bullish.

Bullish Silver Technicals

Let’s consider the gold-silver ratio.

As a quick refresher, the gold-silver ratio is calculated by simply dividing the spot price for one gold ounce by the spot price of one silver ounce. That’s it. Naturally the higher the ratio, the more silver ounces are needed to buy one gold ounce, and vice versa. The most bullish scenario is when the ratio is falling from a high level, ideally from above 80, and the silver price is rising.

Here’s a chart of the gold silver ratio during the 1970s silver bull market.

To me it’s very intriguing to note how recessions, which are the grey vertical bars, tended to mark troughs and/or peaks in the ratio. What’s also interesting is that when silver reached its peak in 1980, the gold-silver ratio ultimately bottomed around the same time at a level near 15, which was below the starting point near 20.

Let’s now move to the current silver bull market that I believe began in 2001. The following chart shows us silver prices since 2000, not adjusted for inflation.

Of course, silver had a tremendous run from $4.20 in 2001 to its 2011 peak at $49. It then corrected until late 2015, then moved sideways until bottoming near $12 last year in March. It had a tremendous move up to $30 within just five months and has been mostly consolidating since.

Now let’s examine the gold-silver ratio action since 2001.

Again we see peaks and troughs tend to occur (though not exclusively) around recessions (gray bars). At silver’s peak in 2011, the ratio bottomed near 33. It then rose almost constantly up to its all-time peak last March at 125, then fell dramatically to its current level around 67, as silver started to significantly outpace gold. Consider that we know from history silver always outperforms gold in precious metals bull markets. So the current action is particularly exciting for silver.

Silver Targets

But what does it all mean for how high the silver price can go? Of course, no one knows for sure. But there are some indicators worth examining for clues and suggestions.

I believe the ratio will ultimately reach a low near 15. And given the inflationary path we’re on, I think gold could peak at $5,000 per ounce. That’s just 2.5 times last August’s peak near $2,000. In fact, I think there’s even a decent chance gold could reach $10,000, which is just five times last August’s peak. But if we stick with $5,000, and an ultimate bottom in the gold-silver ratio of 15, we get ($5,000/15) $333 per ounce of silver.

Let’s look at silver price targets from another angle: inflation.

If we consider inflation-adjusted silver prices going back to 1970, we see that the peak reached in 1980 was actually $120/ounce in today’s dollars, and that’s using government sanctioned inflation statistics, which tend to be well below what we experience in everyday life.

Considering the old way of calculating inflation, which the U.S. abandoned decades ago and I reference below from Shadowstats.com, a realistic inflation rate would have averaged 7%–8% since 1980 (triple official inflation), which would mean an equivalent silver price of $240–$360 dollars at the 1980 peak.

My gold-silver ratio target for silver of $333 is comfortably within the range of $240–$360. If we take the mid-way point between $240 and $360, we get $300. I think that’s as good an estimate as any of where silver can peak in its current bull market.

On this basis, the silver price would need to be up by more than 10x from current levels to reach its ultimate high. Imagine for a moment, if silver were to soar tenfold from here, what the silver producers’ and silver explorers’ share prices would do. It’s not difficult to expect simply spectacular returns. Which is exactly why it’s so attractive to allocate to this space, while being diversified across several stocks, as it’s impossible to know which will do best. Still, odds are very good that if silver goes up by a factor of 10, the average silver stock should easily double that, and be up by a factor of 20, while the most successful juniors could gain 50x or more. That would simply be a repeat of previous bull markets.

Larger silver producers and royalty companies should be seen as core positions to be held for the long term. The more junior explorers should be treated more cautiously as speculations, on which to take profits when they materialize. Selling half of one’s position on a double would be especially sensible.

In any case, I believe it remains early days for silver and silver stocks. I expect to see much higher prices ahead in the metal and the equities. And in my view the current bout of weakness is an opportunity to buy or add to positions in this space. Remember, at $26 silver is still nearly 50% below its all-time nominal high, while gold is just 10% below its all-time nominal high. Silver is clearly the better relative bargain.

In the Silver Stock Investor newsletter, I provide my outlook on which silver stocks have the best prospects as this bull market progresses. Many offer 5x to 10x return potential in just the next few years, especially as silver heats up.

I think silver is currently at or very close to its bottom, but that its ultimate peak could well be in the $300 range.

Either way, silver is headed much, much higher.

–Peter Krauth

Peter Krauth is a former portfolio adviser and a 20-year veteran of the resource market, with special expertise in precious metals, mining and energy stocks. He is editor of two newsletters to help investors profit from metal market opportunities: Silver Stock Investor, www.silverstockinvestor.com and Gold Resource Investor, www.goldresourceinvestor.com. In those letters Peter writes about what he is buying and selling; he takes no pay from companies for coverage. Peter has contributed numerous articles to Kitco.com, BNN Bloomberg, the Financial Post, Seeking Alpha, Streetwise Reports, Investing.com, TalkMarkets and Barchart, and he holds a Master of Business Administration from McGill University.

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Disclosure:
1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in any aspect of the article preparation. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article.
2) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
3) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

Source: Andrew Hecht for Streetwise Reports   05/05/2021

With the price of copper closing in on all time highs, Andrew Hecht of Proven and Probable discusses the macro picture for the metal and homes in on an explorer, Nevada Copper, with a large footprint in Nevada.

• The target above the 2021 high is the 2011 peak
• Goldman Sachs says copper is the new oil
• Producers are looking for new supplies
• Nevada is a friendly state with lots of reserves
• The trend is your friend in markets—It is rising in copper and Nevada Copper shares—They still show increased value potential

At the start of May, copper remained near a 10-year high of $4.50/lb. After correcting to $3.9435 in late March, copper bounced toward the high in a continuation of the bullish trend that has been in place since March 2020. Thirteen months ago, copper found a bottom at more than half the current price when it reached $2.0595 per pound on the nearby COMEX copper futures contract. LME three-month copper forwards fell to a low of $4,626.50 per ton.

Rising demand with supplies not keeping pace is fueling the copper bull. Producers are scouring the world for new reserves and production. One area that offers a friendly jurisdiction and exciting reserves is the state of Nevada, and Nevada Copper Corp. (NCU:TSX; NEVDF:OTC) has a substantial footprint in the state as it explores for copper, gold and silver. Nevada Copper holds a 100% interest in the Pumpkin Hollow property in Nevada, with the company’s headquarters nearby in Reno, Nevada.

Nevada Copper Corporation trades in the U.S. on the over-the-counter market under the symbol NEVDF. On the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), the company’s symbol is NCU.

Exploration companies carry a high risk for investors. However, since the reward is a function of risk, payoffs can be massive for successful companies. Nevada Copper’s shares are worth a look as the red metal is moving higher in the most significant bull market in over a decade, and Nevada is a safe, growth area for copper production.

The target above the 2021 high is the 2011 peak

After reaching a high of $4.3755 per pound on the active month May COMEX futures contract on February 25, copper corrected to a low of $3.8490 on March 4. The over 12% decline was significant, but it did not negate the bullish trend since March 2020, when the continuous contract price reached a bottom at $2.0595 per pound.

Source: CQG

The chart shows that since the March 4 low, COMEX copper futures have made higher lows and higher highs and were back over the $4.50 per pound level at the end of April.

Source: CQG

The long-term quarterly chart illustrates the red metal has posted four consecutive quarterly gains. A close above $3.9830 on June 30 would mark the fifth straight quarter of higher prices. Open interest, the total number of open long and short positions in the COMEX copper futures market, is steady at the 248,000 level. Open interest has increased steadily over the past years. With rising open interest along with an increase in the copper spot price is a good indicator for a technical validation of a bullish trend in a futures market. Quarterly price momentum and relative strength indicators are rising in a bullish trend. Quarterly historical volatility at just below the 26% level is near the highest reading since 2013. The quarterly chart shows the next upside target stands at the 2011 peak at $4.6495 per pound, only 27.4 cents above the recent 2021 high.

Source: LME

The chart of three-month copper forwards on the London Metals Exchange shows that the red metal traded to a high of $9,562.50 in February, with the 2011 high at $10,123 per metric ton. LME forwards were at the $9,370 level recently.

Goldman Sachs says copper is the new oil

In a recent research report, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote, “The critical role copper will play in achieving the Paris climate goals cannot be overstated.” The report’s title is “Copper Is the New Oil,” a statement on the base metal’s rising profile in the world financial system.

Copper is a primary component in systems that create wind, solar and geothermal energy. It is essential for electric vehicles and semiconductors, as well as having many other industrial applications. A U.S. infrastructure rebuilding program and China’s massive and growing appetite for the red metal will only increase the base metal’s demand over the coming years.

According to Goldman Sachs’s report, it takes two to three years to extend an existing copper mine and as many as eight years to establish a new project. Goldman sees prices rising to the $15,000 per ton level by 2025, over 50% above the late February high and well above the 2011 peak.

Producers are looking for new supplies

The world’s leading copper producers are searching for new supplies. In 2020, the top five copper mining companies were:

• Codelco – 1.73 million tons
• BHP – 1.72 million tons
• Freeport-McMoRan – 1.45 million tons
• Glencore – 1.26 million tons
• Southern Copper – 1.0 million tons

As the demand rises, these leading mining companies and others worldwide will scourge the earth for new supplies. Exploration companies that locate proven and probable reserves in safe and friendly jurisdictions with minimal political risk will take advantage of the copper boom that began at the March 2020 lows and is likely to continue over the coming years. Nevada Copper Corporation could be a diamond in the rough in May 2021 as it has a foothold in a region rich in copper reserves in the safest area of the world.

Nevada is a friendly state with lots of reserves

In the United States, scarcity in the copper market could become a national security issue over the coming years. Competing with China could be a challenge as the Chinese have spent decades securing relationships and supplies worldwide via copper producers and infrastructure investments in copper-producing countries. Therefore, the importance of U.S. domestic output is rising.

When most people think of Las Vegas and its gambling, shows and fine dining when it comes to Nevada, mining shaped the state’s economy for many years. Mark Twain, the American writer, humorist, entrepreneur, publisher and lecturer, lived in Nevada when he wrote “Roughing It”in the early 1870s. Nevada is officially known as the “Silver State” because of the role of silver in the state’s history and economy. In the 2020s, Nevada looks set to become the “Copper State” as Nevada Copper is extracting substantial supplies of the red metal from mineral-rich areas within the state’s borders.

Pumpkin Hollow is Nevada Copper’s crown jewel property, hosting an underground project currently in production and an open pit development. The Fraser Institute rates the location in Nevada as the world’s #1 mining jurisdiction. Moreover, the local district of Yerington is a former copper-producing region with world-class infrastructure and a skilled workforce. Pumpkin Hollow’s substantial reserves and resources include copper, gold and silver, with lots of potential for deposit expansion and greenfield exploration. Production is ongoing at Pumpkin Hollow; the open pit project is advancing to the feasibility stage, and greenfield exploration activity has started.

Nevada Congressman Mark Amodei was the master of ceremonies at Pumpkin Hollow’s groundbreaking ceremony eight years ago. He recently visited the site to survey progress. Congressman Amodei sponsored the successful Yerington Land Conveyance and introduced the bill in the U.S. House of Representatives in February 2012. The legislation was Section 3009 in the National Defense Authorization Act of 2014 that privatized all 10,000+ acres of land where Pumpkin Hollow resides. Nevada Copper has the only mining permits in the area.

The trend is your friend in markets—It is rising in copper and Nevada Copper shares—They still show increased value potential

You can learn more about Nevada Copper and the company’s plans and projects on its website. In markets, the trend is always your best friend, and in copper, it is higher. The rising price and increasing U.S. copper requirements put Nevada Copper in a perfect position to grow and profit over the coming years. As a company closing in on commercial production with its underground mine, and an additional fully permitted open-pit mine n development, and with a property of multiple exploration targets, it is creating a franchise in the region. The value proposition has not been fully realized. Nevada is a location that offers political and economic stability compared to most other mineral-rich sites.

Source: Barchart

The chart of Nevada Copper Corp. shares (NCU.TO) that trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange highlights the move from C$0.06 on November 3, 2020, to a high of C$0.24 on February 19. On April 22, the shares pulled back to the C$0.18 level.

At the C$0.18 level, Nevada Copper has a market cap of C$323.633 million. NCU.TO trades an average of over 3.3 million shares each day, making the company liquid for trading or investing. In the U.S., Nevada Copper Corporation trades under the symbol NEVDF. The stock closed at USD $0.1531 on April 22, with a market cap of US$278.801 million and an average of over 1.35 million shares changing hands each day. The stock has been climbing since and on April 30 reached C$0.23 in Canada and USD $0.18 in the US.

Nevada Copper offers investors three compelling reasons to consider the company for portfolios:

• The trend in copper is rising, and some of the most respected analysts on Wall Street see the price moving over 50% higher than the current level.
• Nevada Copper has an exploration and production franchise in a prime location in Nevada, a state that offers political and economic stability.
• The U.S. needs to secure copper supplies for the coming years and is likely to favor domestic exploration companies and producers as it competes for metal with China.

Nevada Copper offers lots of upside potential at the current share price. The company’s success is a strategic imperative for the United States as it competes with China and other countries for scarce copper supplies. There are few places better than in the U.S.’ backyard in the “Silver State” of Nevada, with a long history of success in the mining business, to secure copper supplies for the coming years.

Andrew Hecht is a commodities trader and analyst with over forty years of experience. He began his career at Philipp Brothers, the world’s leading merchant physical commodities trading company, in the 1970s through the 1990s. He spent two decades with Philipp Brothers working in the commodities division, Salomon Brothers division and at Phibro Energy. Hecht ran trading, sales and marketing in a wide range of commodity products. He subsequently worked with banks, hedge funds, and institutions trading commodities and managing risk. The business took him around the globe to assist producers and consumers. Hecht has taught at the university level and writes prolifically on commodities for many portals. He has been one of the top-rated and followed contributors at Seeking Alpha over the past years. He is a partner at Bubba Trading and continues to analyze markets, teaching traders and investors via his newsletters, articles and seminars.

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( Companies Mentioned: NCU:TSX; NEVDF:OTC,
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