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Gold

How the United States Conquered Inflation Following the Civil War

According to the most recent polling data, the American public’s approval of Congress stands at a dismal 21 percent. Almost four times as many people disapprove of the job it’s doing.

That’s par for the course in recent decades. It’s the major reason the Washington sausage grinder earns so little praise. To be fair, though, let’s review an occasion when lawmakers got something right. I’m prompted to share this story now because its lessons are especially relevant considering today’s concerns about rising price inflation. The year was 1875.

The Civil War (1861-65) produced a disastrous hyperinflation in the Confederacy and considerable currency depreciation of paper greenbacks in the North as well. A decade after Appomattox, Congress still had not made good on its promise to make its paper money redeemable in gold. But in January 1875, alarmed by the rise of pro-inflation agitators (the “greenbackers,” later to become “silverites”), Congress passed the Specie Payment Resumption Act, which President Ulysses S. Grant later signed into law.

Politicians often break their promises, and this was yet another opportunity to do so. Congress could have declared, “We don’t have the gold necessary to honor our pledge, so we’ll pay gold for greenbacks at 50 cents on the dollar.” But lawmakers chose to be honest for once, and to meet their obligations fully. The Act provided that all paper greenbacks would be redeemable on demand “at par” (100 percent of the earlier promise), beginning on January 1, 1879.

When Rutherford B. Hayes succeeded Grant as President in March 1877, he knew his administration had less than two years to prepare the Treasury and the nation’s banks for redemption. He and his Treasury officials believed the best way to avoid a run on the banks in January 1879 was to shore up the country’s gold reserves. They did so largely by selling bonds to Europeans in exchange for gold.

Redemption Day came amid rumors that people would flood the banks with their paper greenbacks and demand the promised gold, but just the opposite happened. Hardly anybody showed up at bank teller windows asking for the yellow metal. Why? Because the Treasury had accumulated more than enough gold to take care of convertibility, and the public knew it. The lesson? When people have good reason to believe their paper money is “as good as gold,” they prefer the convenience of paper.

Former United States Circuit Judge Randall R. Rader writes,

The year 1879 brought the resumption of the redeemable currency. The consumer price index stabilized at 28 in that year. For more than three decades thereafter (World War I interrupted the price tranquility), the index never rose above 29 or dipped below 25. The index remained at 27 for a decade. Never did it rise or fall more than a single point in a year. The gold standard worked throughout that entire period to keep prices remarkably stable.

Americans today are once again the victims of price inflation brought on by runaway government spending and printing of unbacked paper money. Does the Specie Payment Resumption Act of 1875 offer a model that could solve the problem? Yes and No.

Certainly, tying the dollar to a precious metal would exert a discipline desperately needed in monetary policy. Putting the Federal Reserve out of business would be a meaningful and positive reform as well; since its inception in 1913, it has given us one Great Depression, a bunch of recessions and a currency worth maybe 1/20th of its 1913 value. The Fed is an inflation factory, stumbling and fumbling from one self-inflicted crisis after another. Gold convertibility, as the 1875 act provided, would signify a restoration of integrity and monetary sanity that we haven’t seen in a hundred years.

But two big, fat elephants ensure that an 1875-like reform would immediately collapse unless they are summarily escorted out of the room. One is dishonest politicians. Washington is overrun with them—people who are interested first and foremost in short-term power and re-election and least of all in the long-term economic health of the country. Many are (pardon my bluntness) economic morons, oblivious to the red ink even as they drown in it.

The other elephant—the presence of which is a confirmation and consequence of the first—is a massive, annual budget deficit.

For half a century from 1865 until World War I, the federal government ran an almost unbroken string of budget surpluses. Today, it produces trillion-dollar deficits without batting an eye, and the President demands trillions more in spending and debt. If he announced today that the dollar would henceforth be backed by gold, the world would laugh, and you and I would rush to the banks with our paper before the gold ran out.

In other words, monetary discipline goes hand in hand with fiscal discipline. A return to sound money is impossible without a simultaneous return to sound budget management. In the face of a monstrous budget deficit and an even more frightening $30 trillion national debt, Congress just voted to ship $40 billion to Ukraine without cutting so much as a penny from anything else.

We have neither a Congress nor a President, and perhaps no public consensus either, that would permit anything remotely resembling the 1875 Specie Payment Resumption Act.

And until we do, the dollar is destined for further depreciation. Just as elections have consequences, so do destructive monetary and fiscal policies.

This article originally appeared on FEE.org

Img credit: Flickr – Jeremy Schultz

      
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Gold

Fed’s Inflation Fight Is All Bark, No Bite

Fed officials talk a good game.

Esther George shared the Fed’s current stance with a CNBC reporter last week:

“Looking at the stock market is an important price signal – as many others are – to watch and see. This is a time of uncertainty. It’s been a rough week in the equity markets. What we are looking for is the transmission of our policy through markets’ understanding, and that tightening should be expected. It is one of the avenues through which tighter financial conditions will emerge.”

Translate George’s Fedspeak to plain English, and it appears the central planners are willing to accept lower asset prices in order to control inflation.

Prices

The CNBC reporter and the rest of the corporate press seem happy to accept whatever George and the other wizards at the Fed say without question. More critical thinkers have questions.

Are George and other Fed officials lying about wanting to control price inflation?

Rising prices are a massive problem for most Americans. Politicians are feeling plenty of heat over the issue.

No doubt Biden administration officials are urging the Fed to assure Americans their central bank is taking decisive action. So far, however, there isn’t much reason to believe George and her comrades are planning to do much more than talk.

April’s half percent rate hike in the Fed funds rate has been played up as bold because it was double the usual increment. Yet the country is now experiencing 1980 levels of inflation, and thus far Fed officials have only jacked up the funds rate to 1.0%. The response four decades ago was to hike the funds rate to 20%.

Absolutely no one at the Fed (or anywhere else) is even talking about that kind of action. That is probably because our debt- and stimulus-addicted economy would likely implode before officials even got to 5%.

Only if Jerome Powell and the FOMC were to emulate Fed Chair Paul Volcker can Americans know for sure they are serious about reining in the inflation they created.

Until then, it is safer to assume official talk cannot be trusted. After all, these people hardly have Volcker’s courage or credibility.

They lie routinely, and they are often wrong. For example, most recently, Americans were told inflation was merely “transitory.”

In reality, sky-rocketing prices might just be part of a plan.

The nation is grappling with the mother of all debt bubbles. Public debt across all levels of government, unfunded liabilities, corporate debt and consumer debt is far beyond the ability of the nation to cover. Some form of default is inevitable.

The question has always been whether the Fed will permit an outright default or orchestrate a default through inflation. Many, including us, have long expected officials will do the latter. They will attempt to print money and devalue the nominal mountain of debt until it looks more like a molehill.

The ability to do that is one of the features that politicians and central bankers love about fiat currency throughout history.

Americans aren’t loving inflation now that it has moved out of asset prices and into the real economy.

That’s why the strategy is always for those behind the inflationary fiscal and monetary policy to blame anyone, or anything, else. Have you heard Biden blame “Putin’s War” in Ukraine for making gas and food unaffordable?

The opportunity to mislead the public about who is responsible makes a default through inflation more palatable politically than a direct default, i.e. telling bond holders and Social Security recipients they are simply out of luck. It’s hard to dodge blame when folks suddenly stop getting the checks they were promised.

What’s more, Wall Street lenders just might survive inflation. They probably wouldn’t survive mass defaults. And if there is any certainty in this uncertain world, it is that the Fed will look out for the banks.

The FOMC has hiked rates just 0.75%. The equity markets are down nearly 20%. The markets could be down 40% by the time they deliver the next 75 basis point increase, giving the Fed plenty of cover to reverse course.

      
Categories
Gold

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The post Retailers Getting Hammered By Rising Costs first appeared on SchiffGold.

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The post Peter Schiff: The Recession Is Already Here and It Won’t Be Mild first appeared on SchiffGold.

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