Author: Gold News Club

Source: Adrian Day for Streetwise Reports   05/18/2020

Money manager Adrian Day looks at three large gold royalty companies that have reported Q1 earnings.

Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE, US$143.88) reported first-quarter earnings slightly better than expected, with Gold Equivalent Ounces (GEOs) up over 10% compared with a year ago. It has withdrawn its full year guidance due to the covid-related shutdown of some of its mines; about 30% of its production has been affected, primarily at Cobre Panama and Antamina. The timing of the restart in Panama is uncertain, though work is ongoing towards a restart. Another 11 assets had announced stoppages, though five of those have since resumed activities. Franco has also been hurt by the low oil price and consequent reduced production, and the company took some write-downs on its oil assets. G&A costs were less than 3% of revenues in first quarter.

Looking ahead with confidence

In two signs of confidence however, Franco paid off its remaining $80 million in debt; the company has always been debt averse. And it increased its quarterly dividend by a penny to 0.26, for its 13th consecutive annual dividend increase. Both these moves contrast with most mining companies that have drawn down on the credit facilities and cut their dividends.

The pipeline is “healthy,” with Franco looking at a wide range of assets including opportunities in base metals and bulk materials. A particular opportunity is with base metals producers, hurt by lower prices, looking to monetize precious metals by-product. Various government restrictions make on-the-ground due diligence difficult, and in the near term, we would expect smaller transactions to close first.

Debt free again, with cash available

Franco now has $200 million in cash with $1 billion undrawn on its revolver, and it has increased to $300 million the amount authorized under its “ATM,” the ability to issue small amounts of shares “at the market,” more than sufficient for any near-term transactions.

As previously announced, Pierre Lassonde has now became chairman emeritus, David Harquail chairman, and Paul Brink CEO. We have discussed this previously.

The stock fell to under $90 in March, so it has had a very strong recovery, moving to all-time highs. Trading at 5.6x book, a price-to-cash flow of 40x, well above even Franco’s historically rich valuations. Historical norms, Franco is not cheap. But it belongs in every gold investor’s portfolio.

Debt cut as one third of production affected by shutdowns

Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (WPM:TSX; WPM:NYSE, US$43.38) reported in line with expectations, with operating cash flow up 50% on last year. It also reduced its debt, by $159 million, ending the quarter with $127 million in cash and $716 million outstanding on its revolver. It also has a $300 million ATM to raise equity. It did not update its full-year guidance, but 35% of its production has been affected by covid-shutdowns, including at Peñasquito.

The stock, at $24 in mid-March, has also experienced a strong recovery. Now trading at 3.7x book, and a price-to-cash flow of 35x, it also is not cheap.

Taking different approach, with growth ahead

Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD:NASDAQ; RGL:TSX, US$136.43) reported earnings, up 24% on year ago, slightly above expectations. It generated cash flow of $100 million, ending the quarter with $94 million in cash and $105 million in debt. After quarter end, it drew down $200 million on its revolving credit facility “as a precautionary measure.” In line with the other major royalty/streaming companies, about 30% of its production has been affected by mine shutdowns. Mt Milligan and Rainy River are returning to normal production levels, with only Peñasquito of its major assets still shut. Alone of the three, it has not withdrawn its 2020 guidance but had no update.

Construction work at Khoeomacau in Botswana, the company’s next major asset, continues, though at a reduced scale because of local restrictions. Royal has made its third construction contribution, and production is still scheduled for mid-2021. Like the others, it did not update its full year guidance.

From under $70 in March, the stock has also had a very strong move, now trading at 4x book, and 28x cash flow. Though not cheap, it is comparatively better value.

All three large royalty and streamers reported strong earnings. All have strong management, solid balance sheets, available cash, diversity of revenue, and deep pipelines. But all three stocks are expensive. As mentioned above, as the gold price moves higher, more and more investors, particularly generalists, will turn to the royalty companies that have strong records of delivering. So while this may be a good time to trim if one wants to be a trader, a year or two from now, the stocks will, I believe, be higher. Franco is, in my mind, the best company, while Royal is the least overvalued.

Originally posted on May 10, 2020.

Adrian Day, London-born and a graduate of the London School of Economics, heads the money management firm Adrian Day Asset Management, where he manages discretionary accounts in both global and resource areas. Day is also sub-adviser to the EuroPacific Gold Fund (EPGFX). His latest book is “Investing in Resources: How to Profit from the Outsized Potential and Avoid the Risks.”

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Disclosure:
1) Adrian Day: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of the following companies mentioned in this article: Franco-Nevada and Royal Gold. I personally am, or members of my immediate household or family are, paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this article: None. Funds controlled by Adrian Day Asset Management hold shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: All. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Franco-Nevada and Royal Gold, companies mentioned in this article.

Adrian Day’s Global Analyst disclosures: Staff may have positions in securities discussed herein. Adrian Day is also President of Global Strategic Management (GSM), a registered investment advisor, and a separate company from this service. In his capacity as GSM president, Adrian Day may be buying or selling for clients securities recommended herein concurrently, before or after recommendations herein, and may be acting for clients in a manner contrary to recommendations herein. This is not a solicitation for GSM. Views herein are the editor’s opinion and not fact. All information is believed to be correct, but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The owner and editor are not responsible for errors and omissions. © 2020.

( Companies Mentioned: FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE,
RGLD:NASDAQ; RGL:TSX,
WPM:TSX; WPM:NYSE,
)

Source: Bob Moriarty for Streetwise Reports   05/18/2020

Bob Moriarty of 321gold discusses why he believes the spin-off company will be bought out.

Gold and silver have had a good run lately but the DSI (Daily Sentiment Index) is suggesting a pause may be in the works. Gold hit a reading of 91 on Friday May 15^th while silver showed 88. While I am convinced the actions of the Fed in unleashing a flood of dollars will result in hyperinflation in the metals and deflation in real terms for all of the bubbles, corrections are part of investing. There are so many wonderful stories out there right now that have not caught fire that I think correction or not, juniors are the only game in town.

And for new subscribers to the DSI Jake has a sale on right now for up to 50% off until June 1^st. I find the DSI the most useful took in investing. Other than my articles, that is.

Eagle Plains is a project generator company. They hold a number of projects of various kinds in western Canada and do deals with other juniors for cash and shares. If one of their deals does well they do well and haven’t had to pay their way.

Since investors are as incapable as I am of keeping track of a dozen or more projects usually investors will pay X for the biggest and most important project. They will pay ½ X for the 2^nd most important and potential and maybe 1/10^th X for the rest of the stable. It’s frustrating to project generator companies to know that they are not getting full value for each of their properties.

So in 2006 Eagle Plains spun out a great copper project located near the Galore Creek project of Novagold into a company they named Copper Canyon. Because it had a lot of copper. There literally was a creek running bright blue from the copper.

It took another five years for someone to get interested. Novagold bought Copper Canyon in 2011.

There wasn’t a giant premium paid to the shareholders of Copper Canyon but Eagle Plains owned a lot of shares and generated substantial value for something that investors weren’t giving them anything for.

So in April of 2018 Tim Termuende made a similar deal spinning off various projects to a new company to be known as Taiga Gold Corp. (TGC:CSE; TGGDF:OTCBB). Taiga Gold shares the same management as that of Eagle Plains. And Eagle Plains retained 12 million shares of TGC as part of the deal.

Taiga’s lead property is the Fisher gold project adjacent to the Seabee/Santoy Gold mines owned by SSRM (Formerly Silver Standard [and I liked the name Silver Standard a lot better]). SSRM did a deal on the Fisher gold property that calls for them to get a 60% interest for spending $4 million on exploration and paying Taiga $400,000 in cash with a $100,000 yearly advance royalty on production. So far SSRM has spent over $10 million and done 79 holes of over 35,000 meters. They can increase their ownership of Fisher by paying Taiga $1 million.

SSRM believes the Santoy Shear extends 20 km on the Fisher project. That’s the ore host for the Seabee/Santoy deposits. Santoy is a low cost producer for SSRM having produced over 112,000 ounces of gold in 2019 at a grade of 9.56 g/t and a cost of $464 an ounce in US pesos.

On the 14^th of May Taiga announced results for 23 of the 31 drill holes completed in the 2020 winter program at Fisher. Some 14 of the 23 holes reported meaningful gold results with visible gold in 5 of the holes. An additional 8 holes are in the process of being assayed.

This is one of those zero brainer type investments. SSRM didn’t spend $10 million on drilling unless they had a real good idea of what they will find. At some point they will write a check to Taiga for $1 million and own 80% of the project. The only issue for investors would becoming up with a value for the remaining 20% of the project. Seebee has been mined out and Santoy has a 1.5 million ounce 43-101 resource.

It’s a low cost producer, surely SSRM will have a back of the envelope calculation for how much gold they believe they can find on the Fisher project. SSRM will buy out Taiga at some point.

Since I happen to believe we are going to see far higher prices for gold than resource investors can imagine today, will the takeover be early or later? I’d rather see it later because with a $14 million market cap today Taiga is absurdly cheap.

Taiga is an advertiser. I have bought shares in the open market and been in the last private placement. Do your own due diligence

Taiga Gold Corp.
TGC-C $0.18 (May 15, 2020)
TGGDF – OTCBB 79.4 million shares
Taiga Gold Corp. website

Bob Moriarty
President: 321gold
Archives
321gold

Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com, with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures and updates on current events affecting both sectors. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds 14 international aviation records.

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Disclosure:
1) Bob Moriarty: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: Taiga Gold. Taiga Gold is an advertiser on 321 Gold. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
2) The following companies mentioned are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

( Companies Mentioned: TGC:CSE; TGGDF:OTCBB,
)

Source: Michael Ballanger for Streetwise Reports   05/18/2020

Sector expert Michael Ballanger anticipates the come-from-behind winning run of silver.

In the late 1930s, a young stallion was born in Lexington, Ky., at the legendary Calumet Farm, that went on to win seventeen major races from 1940–1942, including the Triple Crown (Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes) in 1941. Named after his brood-mare mother, Dustwhirl, this record-breaking stallion went by the moniker of “Whirlaway,” and was famous not only for his speed and power but also for his “quirkiness.”

Whirlaway had a bad habit of “drifting out” to the middle of the track, taking him out of contention in races that were clearly his to win. This behavior was so troublesome that trainer Ben A. Jones fitted the colt with a special full-cup blinder over his right eye while preparing for the Kentucky Derby, and after cutting a tiny hole in it to allow a limited field of vision, Whirlaway stayed on course and blew the field away with a record-breaking eight-length victory.

Another trait of this magnificent horse was his preference for lagging the field, and one of the trademark phrases used countless times as the horses rounded the Clubhouse Turn was “and here comes Whirlaway!” The crowds would roar as he turned on the afterburners, passing the field in a blaze of acceleration and focus.

What, pray tell, does this have to do with the metals markets or COVID-19 or the inflation-deflation debate? Nothing. Nothing at all. But what it does perfectly describe is the behavior of the one precious metal that we love to hate and that we hate to love—silver.

Which of the metals, packed with superlative fundamentals and above average technicals, tends to “drift out” into the middle of the track, aimlessly lagging its precious metals brethren, gold and the gold mining equities? Silver. Since this golden bull market exploded out the starting gate in May 2019, there have been countless times that I have wanted to fit a full-cup blinder over silver’s right eye to keep it on course.

During the summer of 2019, as I was contemplating the launch of GGM Advisory, gold broke out of a multiyear ceiling at US$1,375/ounce and rocketed to the $1,565/ounce. I watched in abject horror as the GSR (gold-to-silver ratio) flew to 95, leaving behind a trail of heartbroken silver bugs, aghast at the underperformance and outraged at the blatant interventions that capped it.

Whether it is silver’s Whirlaway-like “quirkiness,” or the odious machinations of the bullion banks, the metal has had a habit recently of exhibiting aberrant behavior, which has cost me and many other investors not only a lot of money but also a loss of willpower, where our bullish conviction is wrung out of us by the absurdity of silver’s tape action.

However, you will recall what I said about Whirlaway’s preference of “lagging the field?” There isn’t a day that goes by when I don’t look at the silver quote and see that mighty stallion, lollygagging at the back of the precious metals field, totally ambivalent to the thundering hooves of GLD, GDX, GDXJ and a myriad of junior miners. To describe it as “maddening” is understatement of the highest order. To call it “bizarre” is testimonial to the criminality of the exchange upon which it resides. Whatever the case, it has been agony.

However, just as I have watched the horse come from last to first in a mere quarter-mile of pulsating excitement, I have always known that my little silver “Whirlaway” was going to make his move, exactly as happened in 1941, when he captured the Triple Crown. Sure enough, it was only eight days ago that I issued Email Alert (EA) 2020-80 and wrote: “I am finally confident enough to assume that the GSR (gold-silver ratio), currently at 111, is heading back to 80 over the balance of 2020.” I then proceeded to “damn the torpedoes” and doubled down on SLV (IShares Silver Trust), while adding another huge swath of the July $17 calls.

Call it whatever you wish—luck, clairvoyance, acumen (or dementia)—Friday May 15 had gold sporting a 0.67% gain and silver up a huge 4.33% (!), taking the GSR to its lowest post-crash reading at 103.65.

To put this into perspective, shortly after gold bottomed in late 2015, the GSR rose to around 83 by February of the following year, with silver “lagging the field,” just like the last two months. Then, as if injected with amphetamines, silver vaulted forward, taking the GSR from 83 to 66 in three months.

Understanding silver’s “quirkiness” is many times difficult, and trading around its idiosyncratic nuances can be very costly, but once you know that it has finally taken the bit in its teeth, silver gives one a ride fifty times as exciting as any amusement park “coaster” or Elon Musk stock promotion.

Writing about silver conjures up memories of superstitions of days gone by. Forecasting a sharply higher price is like being in the dressing room between second and third periods, up 3–0, and saying out loud the word “shutout.” It is like Bill Murphy’s LeMetropole Cafe website, where we beg him to not show a rocket blasting off with the word “silver” on it. No dearth of leprechauns, rabbits feet, four-leaf clovers or Amazonian virility symbols are enough to ward off the silver demons, because we have endured the silver jinx all too many times.

The point of this missive is this: False breakouts notwithstanding, when silver finally catches a bid, as happened in late 1979, early 2016 and August 2019, the moves are breathtaking. At the very least, a test of the September 2019 highs at US$19.75/ounce appears to be the most likely target.

The period of seasonal weakness referred to in earlier missives is mainly for gold; silver is not as suspect because it responds to different stimuli not related to seasonality. In the 2020-80 EA, I spoke of a flat gold price and a GSR of 80. If that holds, with gold at US$1,750, silver will print US$21.875, a 44.3% advance from the May 8 entry at US$15.15.

Another important consideration is this: Silver’s underperformance was one of my causes for concern for the Senior and Junior Gold Miner exchange-traded funds (ETFs; GDX:US & GDXJ:US), and now that silver has assumed a leadership role, the odds of a meaningful correction in gold (and the miners) are diminished. While I have elected to stand aside on the GDX/GDXJ combo, the massive July call position in SLV will compensate in spades if we get the Whirlaway charge.

Let us not forget that our second largest portfolio position remains Aftermath Silver Ltd. (AAG:TSX.V) (CA$0.28 / US$0.208 per share); behind the mighty Getchell Gold Corp. (GTCH:CSE), so we have enormous leverage to both rising gold and galloping silver prices. As the post-lockdown period unfolds and you are trying to figure out what silver is going to do, remember the immortal words of Derby announcer Dave Johnson in 1941:

“. . .and h-e-r-e c-o-m-e-s Whirlaway!”

Originally trained during the inflationary 1970s, Michael Ballanger is a graduate of Saint Louis University where he earned a Bachelor of Science in finance and a Bachelor of Art in marketing before completing post-graduate work at the Wharton School of Finance. With more than 30 years of experience as a junior mining and exploration specialist, as well as a solid background in corporate finance, Ballanger’s adherence to the concept of “Hard Assets” allows him to focus the practice on selecting opportunities in the global resource sector with emphasis on the precious metals exploration and development sector. Ballanger takes great pleasure in visiting mineral properties around the globe in the never-ending hunt for early-stage opportunities.

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Disclosure:
1) Michael J. Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of the following companies mentioned in this article: Aftermath Silver, Getchell Gold. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies referred to in this article: Aftermath Silver, Getchell Gold. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector. Additional disclosures are below.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with Aftermath Silver. Please click here for more information. Within the last six months, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has disseminated information about the private placement of the following companies mentioned in this article: Aftermath.
3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Aftermath Silver, Getchell Gold, companies mentioned in this article.

Charts provided by the author.

Michael Ballanger Disclaimer:
This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

( Companies Mentioned: AAG:TSX.V,
GTCH:CSE,
)

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