Categories
Gold

Gold Is About To Get Ugly

Source: Barry Dawes 11/17/2025

Barry Dawes of Martin Place Securities shares his thoughts on where the gold market is headed and takes a look at a few gold stocks.

Its no fun being a gold bear, but the markets must be heeded.

And if the ‘fundamentals’ are negative, there is no point in throwing in the towel and saying that I have turned bullish.

The major point of the gold bugs is fiscal recklessness in debasing the currency, and the focus is always the US$, because the data is obvious and it is in English.

So the ‘debasement trade’ was in full swing with ‘de- dollarisation’ as the key driver.

Get out of US$ because the deficits are going on forever and the Fed will just keep on printin’!’

‘Debt will never be repaid.’

‘That Debt Clock keeps on ticking up!’

Central banks are buying up gold to offset the falling US$, and are selling their US$ Treasury Bonds so the story goes.

But all this is old news and it is now simply not true. The central bank story is totally debunked by the chart below.

The lowest level of purchase YTD for four years and down 22% from last year.

A Ghana buying another tonne and Poland doing a one-off 67 tonnes means the gold market is running out of big buyers.

Another stellar year! Meh.

Bureaucrats are buying at the top.

How much does gold needs to be bought to support a market currently US$29tn as overhead supply?

The US$12 trillion gain in 2025 alone is the biggest gain in any single market ever!

At US$5,000 this is US$35 trillion.

The US$ is in a long term bull market.

De dollarization. Pfff.

Deficits are out of control!

Pfff there too.

U.S. Federal Outlays are now falling while Receipts are rising. The Federal Deficit came in US$200 billion under and is forecast lower in FY26, with interest rates falling so that the Federal interest expense has peaked and is declining.

They won’t be able to sell any Treasuries!

So far since 30 June 2025, the U..S Treasury has rolled over a total of US$5.66 trillion ( ~US$4.88 trillion T Bills (ave historic rate of ~4.2%) and US$0.77 trillion in Treasury Notes(Ave ~3%) and US$11 billion in T Bonds (6.9%)) at rate of sub 4.0% with the latest down to 3.445%.

The T Bill auctions were 3x oversubscribed.

These are the latest (mostly) 6-and-12-month T Bills:

The 2025 and 2026 columns will merge in six weeks:

Note that from January 1, 2026, there will be only US$28 billion 10-year bonds on issue (on present data) and US$38 billion for each of 11 and 12 years.

Did you note the failure of the auctions and the blow out in yields as the Treasury sold US$5.66 trillion of T Bills?

No?

I didn’t either.

Because US$5.66 trillion says it all.

No one told you either.

However, if you listened to the Gold Bugs it would have been the opposite.

Look how these short term rates are falling:

It was pointed out that the September interest expense was US$91 billion, but only US$36 billion was a cash interest payment.

US$55 billion in T Bills sales that were accrued and no cash required. Issuing T Bills defers the interest payment to the maturity date which is mostly 12 months away. US$55 billion non cash for say eight months is US$440 billion in T Bills that don’t need to be sold, and so the selling pressure is reduced even further.

US$440 billion out of the forecast US$1.6 trillion FY26 Budget Deficit is a modest but helpful gain, and whilst it is only temporary, the roll over interest rate in six months is likely to be much lower.

It also has been buying back high coupon bonds, so the need to pay cash coupons on bonds with these +6% coupons is reduced.

This is important because switching to discounted T Bills removes the coupons and coupon payments.

Foreign ownership of U.S. Treasuries is now at record levels.

So, that graph you see with gold bigger than U.S. Treasuries will unwind quite soon.

That is a charlatan’s graph.

Gold made a new rally high overnight but closed lower in a Reversal.

You would have noted that gold gapped up US$112 on Monday and more on Wednesday and also overnight on Thursday.

Bear market rallies are always sharp and full of emotion, just like bull market pullbacks .

Island reversal coming up:

Another parabola breach:

Gold Stocks

Another last gasp parabolic surge that is also exhausted.

Everyone is so excited for the next upleg, and then FOMO takes over, and then there is no buying power left.

And then the stops get hit . . . Ugly.

Market leader gold stocks earnings have failed to provide upward momentum. The parabolic blowoffs are very obvious here.

Wave 3 down should be very savage next week.

Look at Newmont Corp. (NEM:NYSE; NGT:TSX; NEM:ASX), Barrick Mining Corp. (ABX:TSX; B:NYSE), Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE), and Kinross Gold Corp. (K:TSX; KGC:NYSE).

Some gold cycles are suggesting a savage decline coming up in the C wave.

Several months to run its course yet.

Cycles that influence gold:

8-year cycle for gold:

Most of you are familiar with the sentiment for bull markets:

Disbelief, Pessimism, Optimism. Opportunity and Euphoria.

On the way down, we get the opposite.

The first move lower is just a correction, so its OK. The next move is Euphoria, because yay here we go, then its Denial and down the slope of Hope hoping for the turn.

And then Pessimism.

And BUY TIME!

T-Bonds

Yields are heading lower.

Currencies

Currencies are heading lower.

These suggest a BIG EVENT is coming soon.

Heed the markets.

[NLINDERT]

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Barrick Mining Corp. and Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.
  2. Barry Dawes: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: None. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  3. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  4. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Categories
Gold

Strong Metals, Stronger Momentum: Profits Rise as Production Powers Ahead

Source: Streetwise Reports 11/17/2025

Sierra Madre Gold and Silver Ltd. (SM:TSX.V; SMDRF:OTCQX) reported US$5.5 million in revenue and a 27% increase in adjusted EBITDA in Q3 2025. The company sold 153,583 silver-equivalent ounces from its La Guitarra Mine, with gross profit reaching US$1.7 million.

Sierra Madre Gold and Silver Ltd. (SM:TSX.V; SMDRF:OTCQX) has reported its third consecutive quarter of commercial production at the La Guitarra mine in Mexico, with revenues reaching US$5.5 million and gross profit totaling US$1.7 million for the period ended September 30, 2025. The company sold 153,583 silver-equivalent ounces during the quarter at an average realized price of US$35.94 per ounce, up from US$30.87 in the second quarter.

Adjusted EBITDA increased by 27% to US$1.86 million, supported by stronger silver and gold prices. However, all-in sustaining costs rose to US$34.42 per silver-equivalent ounce from US$30.10 in Q2, reflecting capital expenditures for new equipment and mine development initiatives funded by a CA$19.5 million private placement closed in July 2025.

Operations at La Guitarra encountered over 187 hours of downtime during the quarter due to power outages linked to an unusually prolonged rainy season. Despite this, silver and gold production reached 67,785 ounces and 967 ounces respectively, while the mill processed 38,433 tonnes of material with silver recoveries averaging 76.96% and gold recoveries at 75.55%. The company has stated its intention to install a backup power generation system before the next rainy season.

Sierra Madre also began a US$3.5 million exploration program at the East District of La Guitarra in October, targeting previously underexplored areas through mapping, sampling, and structural analysis, with 20,000 to 25,000 metres of drilling anticipated to start in Q2 2026.

Gold and Silver Continue to Shine Amid Economic Shifts and Industrial Demand

Gold and silver markets continued to attract attention in mid-November amid profit-taking, economic uncertainty, and rising industrial consumption. On November 11, Kitco News reported that gold pulled back slightly after touching a three-week high, with December gold futures settling at US$4,113.10 per ounce.

The retreat was attributed to short-term futures traders taking profits, though analysts noted that the metal remained on pace for its strongest annual performance since 1979. Silver held steady at US$50.54 per ounce, supported by consistent industrial and investor demand.

In an October 23 research note, Oliver O’Donnell of VSA Capital reiterated a Buy recommendation for Sierra Madre Gold and Silver Ltd.  Subsequently, in a November 17, 2025, flashnote, O’Donnell increased the target price to CA$1.75 per share (from CA$1.40 per share previously), discussing the Q3 results.

The article noted that growing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut had helped underpin gold prices, particularly as the resumption of government operations suggested softer economic data on the horizon. These macroeconomic conditions continued to favor precious metals, with gold positioned as a traditional hedge.

On November 12, commentator Matthew Piepenburg reinforced gold’s historical role as a store of value.

He highlighted gold’s capacity to preserve purchasing power during prolonged periods of fiat currency devaluation and financial instability. Citing the long-term decline in the U.S. dollar since the creation of the Federal Reserve, Piepenburg characterized gold as a financial hedge against monetary distortion and inflationary pressure.

Silver, meanwhile, is drawing increased attention for its role in clean energy applications. In a November 14 report from WRAL News, the metal was described as undergoing a “surge in demand” linked to its essential use in solar panels and electric vehicles. With high electrical and thermal conductivity, silver plays a crucial role in photovoltaic technology and EV circuitry. The article cited industry estimates projecting that solar-related silver demand could exceed 270 million ounces annually by 2030.

This rapid growth is occurring alongside supply constraints, leading to a reevaluation of silver’s market positioning. WRAL described silver as entering “a new era,” no longer viewed solely as a precious or monetary metal but increasingly as a strategic commodity critical to the global energy transition. Investor sentiment has responded accordingly, with silver prices reaching record levels and reflecting its dual role as both a store of value and a vital industrial input.

Expansion and Development Drive Operational Momentum

Sierra Madre’s ongoing ramp-up at the Coloso and Nazareno mines within the La Guitarra Complex is expected to support improved grades and increased production volumes as early as Q4 2025 and into 2026. Coloso, which resumed mining in early 2025, reports resource grades averaging 1.7 times higher in silver and 1.2 times higher in gold compared to the Guitarra mine The company has also delivered over 700 tonnes of mineralized material from the Nazareno development to the La Guitarra plant as of September 30, 2025.

The Phase I plant expansion is now underway, aiming to increase processing capacity from 500 tonnes per day (tpd) to between 750 tpd and 800 tpd by Q2 2026. Key infrastructure work has begun, including the installation of a second crusher and excavation for a new thickener. A Phase II expansion to 1,200 tpd to 1,500 tpd is planned for Q3 2027. Both phases are expected to be funded through existing cash and internal cash flow, with no additional permitting required for the upgrades.

The company ended the quarter with US$16.9 million in current assets, including cash. Sierra Madre remains focused on optimizing operational performance, reducing costs, and advancing exploration across its permitted properties in Mexico’s silver belt.

Third-Party Expert Analysis: Positive Coverage Highlights Growth Potential

In an October 23 research note, Oliver O’Donnell of VSA Capital reiterated a Buy recommendation for Sierra Madre Gold and Silver Ltd.  Subsequently, in a November 17, 2025, flashnote, O’Donnell increased the target price to CA$1.75 per share (from CA$1.40 per share previously), discussing the Q3 results.

The October 23 report emphasized the significance of exploration activities launched in the Eastern District of the company’s La Guitarra silver-gold project in Mexico, describing the move as a key growth driver for the company’s overall development strategy.

According to O’Donnell, “The initial budget for exploration is US$3.5 million and covers a mapping and sampling phase enabling drill target definition for a 20– to 25-kilometer drill program.” He noted that this first phase was expected to take nine months, with drilling to follow over the subsequent 12 to 18 months.

The Eastern District was described as an area with known high-grade outcroppings and historical workings. O’Donnell reported that modern exploration had only lightly tested the zone and highlighted the high silver grades from past production and drilling. He stated that average silver values ranged from 250 grams per tonne to over 600 grams per tonne, while some zones carried gold values of 3 to 4 grams per tonne, which could translate to silver-equivalent grades of 800 to 1,000 grams per tonne.

The analyst’s model was based on a silver price of US$28 per ounce and recently adjusted to reflect higher market prices of US$47 per ounce and US$4,000 per ounce for gold. Based solely on a discounted cash flow analysis, this brought the target valuation to CA$2.30 per share, with potential to reach CA$3.00 per share depending on sustained market conditions.

O’Donnell also emphasized that silver was not yet overpriced, noting that price volatility is common during bull markets and that macroeconomic concerns such as U.S. treasury yields and geopolitical tensions support continued strength in the sector.

On November 14, Peter Krauth of Silver Stock Investor described Sierra Madre’s third quarter as “an upbeat Q3 2025 with rising revenue, solid margins, and steady progress across the La Guitarra Complex.” He emphasized that adjusted EBITDA climbed 27% quarter over quarter, citing improved operating leverage and ongoing mine development at Coloso and Nazareno. According to Krauth, “Development at the Coloso and Nazareno mines advanced smoothly, unlocking access to higher-grade zones.” He also noted the significant capital improvements underway, including the installation of a second crusher and excavation work for a new thickener and paste plant, part of the Phase I expansion to increase plant throughput to up to 800 tonnes per day by mid-2026. [OWNERSHIP_CHART-10135]

Krauth reported that Sierra Madre delivered US$5.5 million in revenue and US$1.7 million in gross profit during Q3, with production remaining resilient despite power-related mill downtime. He stated, “The company ended Q3 with a stronger balance sheet, holding US$16.9 million in current assets after completing a CA$19.5 million financing.” The financing, he wrote, would support additional equipment purchases and improved mine efficiencies heading into 2026. Krauth also highlighted the ongoing US$3.5 million exploration program in the East District, with drilling expected to begin in the second quarter of 2026. He concluded that Sierra Madre’s two-stage plant expansion and exploration strategy positioned the company for continued growth, adding that he viewed market pullbacks as potential buying opportunities.

Ownership and Share Structure1

Management and founders own approximately 21.4% of the company. According to LSEG, President and CEO Alexander Langer owns 2.68% of the company, Executive Chairman and COO Gregory K. Liller owns 1.77%, Director Jorge Ramiro Monroy owns 1.32%, Director Alejandro Caraveo owns 1.26%, Director Kerry Melbourne Spong owns 0.57%, and Director Gregory F. Smith owns 0.14%.

Institutional investors own 34.3% of the company. Commodity Capital A.G. owns 4.4%, Refinitiv reported. Strategic investors hold 27.7%. The rest is retail.

Sierra Madre Gold and Silver Ltd. has a market capitalization of approximately CA$204.60 million and a 52‑week trading range of CA$0.345 to CA$1.600.

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Important Disclosures:

  1. Sierra Madre Gold and Silver is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$3,000 and US$6,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Sierra Madre Gold and Silver.
  3. James Guttman wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  4. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

1. Ownership and Share Structure Information

The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.

( Companies Mentioned: SM:TSX.V; SMDRF:OTCQX,
)

Categories
Gold

Record-Grade Silver-Gold Intercept Confirms Depth Potential at Key Yukon Target

Source: Streetwise Reports 11/17/2025

Silver North Resources Ltd. (SNAG:TSX.V; TARSF:OTCQB) completed eight holes at the Main Fault target, advancing its work on the Haldane Silver Property in Yukon’s Keno Hill District. The company also expanded survey coverage and continues to draw analyst attention as silver prices reach record highs.

Silver North Resources Ltd. (SNAG:TSX.V; TARSF:OTCQB) has announced the completion of its 2025 diamond drilling program at the Haldane Silver Property in Yukon’s historic Keno Hill Silver District. The program focused on the Main Fault target within the Mount Haldane Vein System (MHVS), an under-explored area known for silver-lead-zinc-bearing quartz siderite veins resembling those mined at nearby producing operations.

The campaign included eight drill holes totaling 1,759.5 meters from four pads. These holes tested approximately 150 meters of strike along the Main Fault structure and extended to a maximum depth of 150 meters down dip. All sampling has been finalized and submitted, with results from the first three holes announced today, and an additional 5 hole results to follow soon.

“Our primary goal for the 2025 drill program was to test the strike and depth continuity of the Main Fault target,” said Jason Weber, P.Geo., President and CEO of Silver North, in a company news release. “I’m very pleased that we have been able to achieve that goal with the program.”

In addition to drilling, the company completed more than 15 square kilometers of LiDAR and photogrammetry surveys across the core MHVS area. These surveys are designed to enhance structural interpretation and topographic control for future drill targeting. The property, covering 8,579 hectares and accessible by road, is located 25 kilometers west of Keno City and adjacent to Hecla Mining’s producing Keno Hill Silver Mine.

In a related update issued November 17, Silver North reported results from the first three holes of its 2025 drill campaign at Haldane. The headline intercept came from hole HLD25-31, which returned 13.15 meters averaging 818 grams per tonne silver, 1.39 grams per tonne gold, 2.54% lead, and 0.98% zinc from 249.9 meters downhole. Within this zone, a subinterval graded 2,014 grams per tonne silver and 1.72 grams per tonne gold over 3.2 meters. The hole extended known mineralization 90 meters downdip from the 2024 discovery area. Two additional holes, HLD25-32 and HLD25-33, further confirmed mineralization continuity northeast of the 2024 drill pads. Results from five remaining holes are pending.

Analysts Point to Bull Market Action as Silver Surges 75% Year-to-Date

In an October 16 analysis, Shad Marquitz of Excelsior Prosperity noted that silver producers had seen substantial gains as silver prices jumped from above US$30 to more than US$50 per ounce. Marquitz described the trend as “bull market action,” adding that “silver in the US$53’s is well above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average.” He highlighted that profit margins were expanding rapidly across the sector, explaining that “the price of silver moved higher much faster than their cost inputs,” which contributed to improved valuations for mid-tier and growth-oriented producers.

Two days later, an article by Richard Mills for Ahead of the Herd explored the broader commodity cycle fueling silver’s rise. Mills described the environment as a “commodity super-cycle” driven by underinvestment and geopolitical instability, asserting that “commodities are the last safe-haven standing in a world of low bond prices and high yields.” He cited Bloomberg data showing a 12% year-to-date increase in the Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index, led by metals like gold, silver, and copper.

According to the article, silver outperformed even these gains with a year-to-date increase of 75%, supported by both investment flows and industrial demand tied to solar energy and electric vehicles. Mills referenced The Silver Institute’s projection of a fifth consecutive annual supply deficit and pointed to ongoing monetary demand, U.S. dollar tightening, and global de-dollarization trends as key factors behind silver’s momentum. He emphasized that silver’s role as both a precious metal and a clean energy material continues to drive interest from a broad investor base.

In a November 14 report from WRAL News, the ongoing surge in silver demand was attributed to its strategic role in clean energy technologies. The article highlighted that “silver, long revered as a precious metal and industrial workhorse, is now experiencing an unprecedented surge in demand,” driven primarily by its essential use in solar panels and electric vehicles. With exceptional electrical conductivity and thermal properties, silver has become a critical input in photovoltaic cells and EV circuitry, accelerating both its industrial demand and price. WRAL noted that this dynamic has “propelled silver into a new era,” pushing prices to record levels and fundamentally altering its market positioning.

The report also cited a dramatic rise in solar sector consumption, estimating that demand from photovoltaic applications could reach over 270 million ounces annually by 2030. Coupled with persistent supply constraints and a growing recognition of silver as a “green technology metal,” the shift has drawn renewed investor attention. As WRAL concluded, silver is no longer viewed solely through a monetary lens but increasingly as a strategic commodity central to the global transition away from fossil fuels.

Silver North Gains Attention Amid Price Surge

In an October 18 article for Ahead of the Herd, Richard Mills identified Silver North as a junior mining company with “excellent leverage to rising commodity prices.” He noted that the company had achieved three discoveries from just eight of the 16 holes drilled at its Haldane project, describing it as “a phenomenal success rate for an early-stage junior.”

Mills also reported that Silver North had recently initiated a 10-hole, 2,500-meter drill program at the same property to further evaluate the downdip and strike extent of its 2024 Main Fault discovery. That discovery included three stacked, high-grade silver-bearing veins intersected within a structural zone, yielding 28.36 meters (true width) grading 130 grams per tonne silver, 0.09 grams per tonne gold, 0.55% lead, and 0.52% zinc.

In a November 17 alert, Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. reaffirmed his strong outlook on Silver North Resources Ltd., calling it his “top junior silver pick for 2025 and beyond.” Ballanger pointed to the latest results from the company’s Haldane Silver Property in the Yukon’s Keno Hill District as a key development, highlighting the significance of both the width and grade of the newly reported intercepts. In particular, hole HLD25-31 intersected 13.15 meters, averaging 818 grams per tonne silver, 1.39 grams per tonne gold, 2.54% lead, and 0.98% zinc, including a subinterval of 3.2 meters grading 2,014 grams per tonne silver and 1.72 grams per tonne gold. Ballanger wrote that “these results are like being in a time capsule transporting [me] back to the late 1970s,” comparing the setup to the historic rise of United Keno Hill Mines. He added that the presence of elevated gold values alongside high-grade silver could act as a catalyst for a re-rating of the company’s valuation.

Ballanger projected that Silver North could reach a market capitalization of CA$50 million based on the strength of the results and the five remaining holes yet to be released from the 2025 drill program. He emphasized the speculative interest the news could attract, stating, “speculative buying in anticipation should take the share price to a new 52-week high.” Ballanger concluded his coverage with a “STRONG BUY” designation on SNAG/TARSF.

Mapping a Vein System in a Legacy District

Silver North’s recent activity at the Haldane Silver Property follows a multi-year effort to delineate and expand vein-hosted silver mineralization across several targets. The Main Fault vein, first drilled in 2024, has shown promising high-grade results, including intercepts such as 5.81 meters grading 365 grams per tonne silver and 1.83 meters at 1,088 grams per tonne silver. These findings build on previous discoveries at the West Fault and Bighorn zones. [OWNERSHIP_CHART-11042]

The company has now completed 16 holes at Haldane, 75% of which encountered silver mineralization, and believes there is at least 12 kilometers of vein strike potential remaining. Survey data from the 2025 program will be used to refine models of the Main, West, Middlecoff, and Johnson vein targets, the latter of which was the site of small-scale high-grade silver production in the early 1900s.

Silver North is also active in the emerging carbonate replacement deposit (CRD) district surrounding Coeur Mining Inc.’s (CDE:NYSE) Silvertip project, with its Tim Property located 19 kilometers to the north. Coeur is earning an 80% interest in Tim through staged exploration expenditures and feasibility milestones, with recent drill results confirming the presence of a CRD-style mineral system.

Ownership and Share Structure1

Management & Strategic Investors owns 14.6%, and the rest is retail.

The company has a market cap of approximately CA$23.19 million and a 52‑week share‑price range of CA$0.065 to CA$0.43 per share.

Sign up for our FREE newsletter at: www.streetwisereports.com/get-news

Important Disclosures:

  1. Silver North Resources Ltd. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$3,000 and US$6,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Silver North Resources Ltd.
  3. James Guttman wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  4. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

1. Ownership and Share Structure Information

The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.

( Companies Mentioned: SNAG:TSX.V; TARSF:OTCQB,
)

Categories
Gold

Has Gold Seen Bottom? This Expert Doesn’t Think So

Source: Streetwise Reports 11/17/2025

Gold rose more than 60% this year, cracking the US$4,300 barrier for the first time. It has since cooled and some may wonder if the pullback means the end of this bull market, but Global Analyst Adrian Day told Streetwise Reports believes that the current prices are “definitely not the top.”

Gold rose more than 60% this year, cracking the US$4,300 barrier for the first time. It has since cooled into correction territory at and was US$4,073.77 at the time of writing.

Some may wonder if the pullback means the end of this bull market, but Global Analyst Adrian Day told Streetwise Reports believes that the current prices are “definitely not the top.”

“It’s not 2011 and it’s not 1980, which were the last gold peaks, of course, the peaks that have ended the gold runs in the last 50 years,” Day said in an interview covering the sector. “And I say that for several reasons. One reason is that, although obviously in September and October, we got very, very excited. Every day, gold was up and, you know, another US$100 hurdle fell, another US$100 hurdle fell. And we got very excited about it. But we’re talking about an asset of US$3,600, US$4,000. So, US$100 means nothing compared with what it meant in 1980.”

The price of gold has set many records this year, but it took on new significance when the rally passed through an inflation-adjusted peak set on Jan. 21, 1980, when prices topped out at US$850.

While definitely exciting for goldbugs, it puts the current rally in perspective, he said.

“If you look at a 100-year or 60-year gold chart on a log basis and look at the percentage gains, then the last three years or last two years in gold, whenever you want to start this rally, are . . . meaningfully lower and less than the 2010-2011 rally. And the 1979-1980 rally. But on a percentage basis, the rally is not one for the history books yet.”

A Bump on the Bull Market Highway

That situation this year has been quite different from 2011, when there was a consistent increase in flows into the GDX throughout the year, Day noted. It reached its peak in August and September, coinciding with the peak in gold prices. At that time, the GDX was trading at a premium, which steadily rose in June, July, August, and September. These are the indicators you want to observe and then consider how often gold is a headline on CNBC.

“Back in 2011, it was,” Day said. “Again, we have no signs of mania . . . You simply cannot, by definition, have a market top without public participation. We simply didn’t have any.”

Day said it may just be a bump in the bull market highway and that he is convinced that gold has not reached its top.

“You often get these sharp pullbacks during bull markets,” he told Streetwise. “How long could this last? I mean, the recovery has actually been quite encouraging . . . It’s always good when the market has a proper correction.”

How deep could the correction go if it continues? Day said he predicted a worst-case scenario of US$3,250.

“A lot of support there because that’s where gold traded, in a very narrow range from the end of April to the end of August,” he said. “I honestly don’t think we’ll get back there. I would think US$3,600 would be a peak at bottom.”

All of the reasons why people have been buying gold in the last year “are still intact,” he said. “Nothing has gone away. Nothing is diminished.”

The Preferred Save-Haven Asset

For centuries, gold has been the preferred safe-haven asset during periods of political and economic instability, according to authors Jack Ryan and Yvonne Yue Li writing for Bloomberg on October 21.

Its reputation as a consistently high-value commodity, easily transportable and sellable worldwide, provides a sense of security when other markets are in disarray.

The world’s central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, and investors have turned to gold for protection this year amid President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war, record U.S. debt levels raising concerns about the nation’s fiscal health, and increasing threats to the Federal Reserve’s independence, they noted. As investors flocked to gold-backed exchange-traded funds, total holdings reached their highest level in over three years in October, according to Bloomberg data.

Day also said the central bank trend has been a long-term one that “didn’t start with Donald Trump, and it’s probably not going to end with Donald Trump.”

“I think it’s fair to say that nothing that this administration has done has eased the concerns about global foreign policy, of central banks, whose main asset is still the dollar,” the expert said. “

But during this bull run with the government shutdown and “no efforts to control the deficit,” foreign banks “want to step up and move out of the dollar.”

“The question I would ask is: if you’re Saudi Arabia, if you’re United Arab Emirates, if you’re China, is 48% of your assets in the dollar still too much? I would argue it is,” Day said.

What could cause gold to drop significantly? “What’s going to cause gold to drop significantly would be if the U.S. administration decides to have a balanced budget. If Trump and the rest of them come out and say, ‘You know what? We were only kidding, guys. We really like you. Forget about the tariffs.”

If gold moves back up to US$4,200, there will be people who say, “I’d better buy it before it goes up anymore.”

“If it then goes to (US$4,200) and then goes to (US$4,300), people are going to say, if they’re standing on the sidelines, they’re going to say, ‘I’d better jump in before I miss it again,'” Day said. “Remember, people on the sidelines, by definition, are people who missed it the first time around. So, they don’t want to miss it the second time around.”

Great Opportunities

The analyst said there are great opportunities for investors new to the sector or those who are under-invested.

“I definitely think one should be buying, definitely,” he said. “There are some really good quality companies at good prices. Not as good as they were a year ago, but at good prices. And prices, frankly, we may not see again.”

How to start? Day said to take small positions in “the best of the best,” like Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE) or Franco-Nevada Corp. (FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE), some of the largest mining companies in the world.

Agnico Eagle’s price at the time of the interview was within 25% of its lowest valuations in its entire history, according to Day.

As the price of gold moves up, the value of the company moves up, as well, he said.

“I would definitely start by taking positions, maybe 50, half positions or whatever, depending on whether you’re conservative or aggressive,” Day continued. “But take positions in the best of the best to begin with.”

Intermediate producers would be next on the list, and “potentially one of the strongest sectors in the next 12 to 18 months.”

“When a bull market starts, typically investors move into the big-cap stocks first,” he said. “Then the money starts to come down the chain. The next place they go to is intermediate producers . . . There’s always a potential for M&A for these companies, but even without that, I think that’s where you’re seeing a lot of value now.”

Look at Jurisdictions, But ‘Troubled’ Cos. Could Be Opportunities

Equinox Gold Corp. (EQX:TSX; EQX:NYSE.A), which Day said was a “troubled” company a year ago with delays and cost overruns, recently released its third-quarter 2025 results, reporting quarterly sales of US$819.01 million and net income of US$85.58 million, both significantly higher than the same period last year, according to a Simply Wall St. report.

“Even though the stock’s moved up a lot, it’s almost tripled from those depressed flows when people were just dumping it because of the problems, it is, on a peer basis, considerably undervalued,” Day said.

Also investigate the country and the jurisdiction for a company’s major gold projects, he said. For example, a new mining code implemented in Mali in 2023 increased state and local ownership of the mines and raised royalties, creating uncertainty for some foreign investors. In that case, it’s very important to research the experience of the company’s leadership team, to see if they have successfully navigated such rough waters in the past.

Equinox has such a team, he noted, and so does Fortuna Mining Corp. (FSM:NYSE; FVI:TSX; FVI:BVL; F4S:FSE), which last month released a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) on its planned next mine, the Diamba Sud project in Senegal, that shows a payback of capital in less than one year. Using a gold price of US$2,750, the IRR is 72% and the payback is 0.8 years, with a low capex of US$283 million. Low all-in sustaining costs (AISC) estimated at US$1,238 will lower the company-wide cost profile. Another company he mentioned was B2Gold Corp. (BTG:NYSE; BTO:TSX; B2G:NSX), which this summer announced its first gold pour at its Goose Mine in the Black River Gold District in Nunavut, Canada.

“When you’re looking at riskier jurisdictions . . . two things that matter to me,” Day said. “One is, is there an actual long-term . . . mining industry and mining history? Do you have people in that country who are experienced in mining, who know what mining means to the country, who know what mining means in terms of employment?”

M&A Not His Target, But ‘Icing on the Cake’

Among smaller cap companies, Day said he liked royalty companies like Elemental Royalties Corp. (ELE:TSX.V; ELEMF:OTCMKTS) and Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd. (MTA:TSX.V; MTA:NYSE American) and companies with either strong balance sheets or cash flow or shareholders who are always be “there for them.”

Another is Orogen Royalties Inc. (OGN:TSXV; OGNNF:OTC), which has an almost US$20 million balance sheet, “a lot for a prospect generator,” he said. They “don’t have to raise money to dilute unless it’s for a good opportunity,” he said. “But they don’t have to. That’s the key.”

Pay attention to the shareholders and look for big names in the industry, like geologist and entrepreneur Ross Beaty, he said.

Another smaller-cap company worth watching is Heliostar Metals Ltd. (HSTR:TSX.V; HSTXF:OTC; RGG1:FRA), which is “to the point where they now have three producing mines” with minimal dilution and strong shareholders.

Day said he also doesn’t chase M&A deals but considers them to be “icing on the cake.”

Often, the larger companies will wait until the smaller companies have done a lot of the work, like permitting and dealing with residents and First Nations.

“They’re more prepared to pay up when the time is right than to get it cheap,” the analyst said. “And you just saw that, for example, with Probe. Probe Mine was acquired by or is in the process of being acquired by Fresnillo Plc (FNLPF:OTCMKTS:FRES:LSE).”

Day said it was a surprise for him, as the “betting in the market” was that Agnico would buy it. Fresnillo’s purchase was “a bit of a surprise to me, frankly.”

No Fear of the US Running Out of Gold Soon

While other metals like silver and copper have been added to the nation’s critical minerals list because of their use in electronics and industry, he said they were “meaningfully more undervalued than gold.”

Also, there is no shortage of gold production in the U.S., he said.

There’s no fear that we’re actually going to run out of gold in the United States,” Day continued. “What this administration has done, of course, is fast-track the permitting.”

While he said he agrees with geologist and San Cristobal Mining Inc. Chief Executive Officer Quinton Hennigh that the cycle of capital may have left the industry in need of a new generation of workers and experts, he believed the pendulum would “swing the other way.”

“You get gold to US$5,000 or US$6,000, suddenly more and more people want to do geology,” he said.

‘Know Yourself’

Overall, the analyst said it was important for investors — new ones and experienced ones alike — to “know yourself, know what kind of risk you can tolerate, not just financially, but emotionally. There are a lot of people who say, ‘I can take a risk. I don’t care if stocks drop.’ But as soon as they drop, they freak out.”

Also, he said many people buy too many stocks.

“You shouldn’t be building a collection,” he said. “It’s not like buying books that go on the bookshelf and half of them you never read.”

It’s also important to find reputable places to find research. “If you don’t even know the basics about a company, and you don’t know where you heard about it, then you shouldn’t own it,” he said. “Make sure you get your recommendations from people you can trust.”

[SMNLINSERT]

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., Franco-Nevada Corp., Equinox Gold Corp., Fortuna Mining Corp., B2Gold Corp., Metalla Royalty & Streaming Ltd., Orogen Royalties Inc., and Heliostar Metals Ltd.,
  2. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  3. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

( Companies Mentioned: AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE,
BTG:NYSE; BTO:TSX; B2G:NSX,
ELE:TSX.V; ELEMF:OTCMKTS,
EQX:TSX; EQX:NYSE.A,
FSM:NYSE; FVI:TSX; FVI:BVL; F4S:FSE,
FNV:TSX; FNV:NYSE,
HSTR:TSX.V; HSTXF:OTC; RGG1:FRA,
MTA:TSX.V; MTA:NYSE American,
OGN:TSXV;OGNNF:OTC,
)

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