Category: Silver

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Silver

Silver Bullion Bars: Complete Investors Guide to Bullion Bars

Silver bullion bars also referred to as silver ingot bars, generally, consist of 99.99% silver and range in size from one ounce to 5000 ounces. The 10-oz and 100-oz sizes are the most popular with investors.

The 5-oz, 25-oz, and 50-oz size bars, which were produced in the early 1970’s, are very difficult to find nowadays. However, the diligent collector can sometimes find these silver bars on popular online auction sites such as eBay.

Unlike silver coins, silver bullion bars are first and foremost an industrial product. They are intended to be used as a storage means and are consider a trading medium. They are very liquid but should be purchased strictly as an investment and not used for bartering purposes.

Some of the advantages of owning silver bullion bars are:

  • Uniform size, making them very convenient to store and easy to handle.
  • Compact size, making them ideal for investors who want to secure a large amount of wealth in a relatively small storage area.
  • Recognizable hallmarks, making them readily accepted for resale and easily convertible to cash.

Brand Names of Popular Bullion Bars

  • Credit Suisse Silver Bars – Large gold bullion producer who makes a small selection of high-premium silver bars.
  • Engelhard Silver Bars – One of the most highly reputed silver bar producers, despite no longer actively producing.
  • Heraeus Silver Bars – Very high premium silver bars, rarely available on the retail market.
  • Johnson Matthey Silver Bars – Similar stature to Engelhard, makes popular 1 and 100 oz bars.
  • NTR Metals Silver Bars – A refiner out of Texas, producing 10 oz and 100 oz bars for cheap.
  • OPM Silver Bars – Ohio Precious Metals, now owned by NTR and producing similar products.
  • PAMP Suisse Silver Bars – A Swiss brand that makes high-premium art silver bars.
  • RCM Silver Bars – The Royal Canadian Mint, produces .9999 100 oz silver bars.
  • Scottsdale Silver Bars – A silver bar retailer who offers their own line of minted silver bars.
  • SilverTowne Silver Bars – Another retail company that also does wholesale, offers 1 oz, 5 oz, 10 oz, and 100 oz bars.
  • Sunshine Silver Bars – 1, 10, and 100 oz bars.

The 100-oz silver bullion bars are often called investment bars, because collectors who buy them usually do so for investment purposes, not as a hedge against inflation. These type of collectors will often sell when silver prices go up.

The 100-oz silver bullion bars are desirable because they offer a low markup over the spot price of silver, although they aren’t as flexible as the 10-oz variety.

The most popular silver bullion bars are created by Engelhard and Johnson-Matthey. Although they are two of the world’s largest refiners, they have not mass-produced silver bars since the mid-1980s. This means Johnson-Matthey and Engelhard silver bars are only available when other investors decide to sell.

More readily available are the 100 ounce Wall Street Mint and Sunshine Mining bars. The English Sheffield and Handy Harman bars can be obtained, but are more difficult to find. The most popular size is the 100 troy ounce silver bar produced by Englehard, an American company.

Engelhard is renowned for producing quality silver bullion bars that are accurately stamped with the exact pureness of the silver that is contained in the bar. Because of their low premium over spot, compared with silver bullion coins, the 100-oz Engelhard silver bars are an excellent way to invest in silver bullion.

Johnson-Matthey was founded in 1817 and has an unrivalled reputation in the precious metals field, because of its technical excellence and dedication to quality. Johnson-Matthey 100 ounce silver bars are always in high demand from silver collectors and investors because of their confidence in the company.

An investor can buy a Johnson-Matthey silver bar with total confidence in its purity, liquidity, quality. Every Johnson-Matthey silver bar is stamped with the exact weight and an individual serial number, exclusive to each and every buyer.

How to Buy Silver Bullion Bars for Investment

Silver Bullion Bars are not only a great investment with potential for appreciation but a way to protect your wealth against inflation, bank failures, and other unforeseen financial catastrophes. In these uncertain times, investing in silver can be an easy way to make sure your family’s financial future is secure.

Traditionally, bullion bars came in 100 oz. sizes; however, now companies have innovated to include even 1 oz silver bullion bars. So, going on: here’s how to invest in silver using bullion bars.

1_blue1_1 The first step is determining your silver investing budget: how much silver can you afford to buy. This will then determine the amount (in ounces) you should buy. Studies from Ibbotson Associates shows between 8 – 10% of your total investment portfolio should be invested in silver. However, if you think above average inflation is on the way then a higher percentage may be warranted.

2_blue1_1 Anyways, after figuring out the ideal budget for your personal investing needs, selecting the size of the bullion bar is next. This step is a little more tricky than the last. Take the total amount you’ve budgeted ($1,000 for example) and divided it by the current price of silver ($18.44 for example). This will equal the amount of silver you can buy in terms of ounces (54.22 ounces of silver for this example). Now, just as you wouldn’t want just one stock, you won’t want one large bar of silver. It’s important to spread out the ounces you can buy into multiple bars because of the liquidity risk. Say one day you need to liquidate some silver–it will be much easier with multiple (smaller sized) bars.

3_blue1_1 Now, once you’ve decided the ounce allocation, the third step is deciding the company(ies) that you’ll buy these silver bars from. Several companies like A-Mark, Sunshine Minting Co., and Engelhard all make various silver bullion bars. Now, back to this spreading out risk idea as we talked about in #2, it’s important to remember that buying silver bars from one single company would be riskier than spreading your silver allocation out to all three (or more). That way, should investors favor waver from one bullion bar to another, you’ll be set holding multiple types of bullion bars.

Where to Buy Silver Bullion Bars

  1. Money Metals Exchange is one of the top online bullion dealers and has earned a top spot for bullion bars. Read reviews of Money Metals Exchange.
  2. BGASC.com is a family owned online bullion dealer offering low prices and free shipping after spending a minimum total. Read reviews of BGASC.com.

The post Silver Bullion Bars: Complete Investors Guide to Bullion Bars appeared first on Silver Monthly.

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Silver

1932 – 1964 Silver Quarters: 90% silver

a image of the Washington silver quarter
Washington Silver Quarter

1932 – 1964 Silver Quarters are 90% silver. These silver quarters along with many other silver coins are classified as “junk silver“, read more about junk silver as an investment. Junk Silver is simply a silver coin that has been used in circulation but now is sold for its silver content instead of the face value.

Listed below are the mintage numbers for each year. The year column lists the year and mint mark on the coin where, D is for Denver, S is for San Francisco, and P is for Philadelphia. Also, a coin without a mint mark means the coin was minted in Philadelphia.

The Mintage column is the number of coins struck and released by the U.S. Mint.

The Numismatic Value Range column represents what people typically pay for that type of coin (usually a very wide price range depending on the condition and demand of the coin). There are some other silver coins that are the most valuable silver coins. The highest selling silver quarters are indeed some of the rare silver coins.

Year Mintage Numismatic Value
1932 5,404,000 $4.00 – $400.00
1932 D 436,800 $200.00 – $1,500.00
1932 S 408,000 $200.00 – $1,500.00
1934 31,912,052 $3.00 – $100.00
1934 D 3,527,200 $4.00 – $1,200.00
1935 32,484,000 $3.00 – $1,500.00
1935 D 5,780,000 $3.00 – $900.00
1935 S 5,660,000 $3.00 – $900.00
1936 41,300,000 $3.00 – $100.00
1936 D 5,374,000 $5.00 – $1,500.00
1936 S 3,828,000 $4.00 – $600.00
1937 19,696,000 $3.50 – $80.00
1937 D 7,189,600 $3.50 – $220.00
1937 S 1,652,000 $4.50 – $400.00
1938 9,472,000 $4.50 – $300.00
1938 S 2,832,000 $4.50 – $300.00
1939 33,540,000 $3.50 – $60.00
1939 D 7,092,000 $3.50 – $130.00
1939 S 2,628,000 $4.50 – $390.00
1940 35,704,000 $3.00 – $60.00
1940 D 2,797,600 $3.00 – $350.00
1940 S 8,244,000 $3.00 – $60.00
1941 79,032,000 $3.00 – $35.00
1941 D 16,714,800 $3.00 – $35.00
1941 S 16,080,000 $3.00 – $35.00
1942 102,096,000 $3.00 – $35.00
1942 D 17,487,200 $3.00 – $35.00
1942 S 19,384,000 $3.00 – $35.00
1943 99,700,000 $3.00 – $30.00
1943 D 16,095,600 $3.00 – $30.00
1943 S 21,700,000 $3.00 – $30.00
1944 104,956,000 $3.00 – $30.00
1944 D 14,600,800 $4.00 – $60.00
1944 S 12,560,000 $4.00 – $60.00
1945 74,372,000 $3.00 – $70.00
1945 D 12,341,600 $3.50 – $70.00
1945 S 17,004,000 $3.50 – $70.00
1946 53,436,000 $3.50 – $50.00
1946 D 9,072,800 $4.00 – $130.00
1946 S 4,204,000 $4.50 – $130.00
1947 22,556,000 $3.00 – $30.00
1947 D 15,388,000 $3.00 – $30.00
1947 S 5,532,000 $3.00 – $125.00
1948 35,196,000 $3.00 – $30.00
1948 D 16,766,800 $3.00 – $30.00
1948 S 15,960,000 $3.00 – $30.00
1949 9,312,000 $3.00 – $30.00
1949 D 10,068,400 $3.00 – $30.00
1950 24,920,126 $3.00 – $30.00
1950 D 21,075,600 $3.00 – $30.00
1950 S 10,284,004 $3.00 – $30.00
1951 43,448,102 $3.00 – $30.00
1951 D 35,354,800 $3.00 – $30.00
1951 S 9,048,000 $3.00 – $30.00
1952 38,780,093 $3.00 – $30.00
1952 D 49,795,200 $3.00 – $30.00
1952 S 13,707,800 $3.00 – $30.00
1953 18,536,120 $3.00 – $30.00
1953 D 56,112,400 $3.00 – $30.00
1953 S 14,016,000 $3.00 – $30.00
1954 54,412,203 $3.00 – $30.00
1954 D 42,305,500 $3.00 – $30.00
1954 S 11,834,722 $3.00 – $30.00
1955 18,180,181 $3.00 – $30.00
1955 D 3,182,400 $5.00 – $250.00
1956 44,144,000 $3.00 – $30.00
1956 D 32,334,500 $3.00 – $30.00
1957 46,532,000 $3.00 – $30.00
1957 D 77,924,160 $3.00 – $30.00
1958 6,360,000 $3.50 – $100.00
1958 D 78,124,900 $3.00 – $30.00
1959 24,384,000 $3.00 – $30.00
1959 D 62,054,232 $3.00 – $30.00
1960 29,164,000 $3.00 – $30.00
1960 D 63,000,324 $3.00 – $30.00
1961 37,036,000 $3.00 – $30.00
1961 D 83,656,928 $3.00 – $30.00
1962 36,156,000 $3.00 – $30.00
1962 D 127,554,756 $3.00 – $30.00
1963 74,316,000 $3.00 – $30.00
1963 D 135,288,184 $3.00 – $30.00
1964 560,390,585 $3.00 – $30.00
1964 D 704,135,528 $3.00 – $30.00

Where to Buy Junk Silver Quarters

Money Metals Exchange offers junk silver at competitive prices. The founder believes (as do we) that investors should buy precious metals at or near the spot price of the metal. Low prices like that have helped Money Metals Exchange’s rapid growth. Read reviews of Money Metals Exchange.

The post 1932 – 1964 Silver Quarters: 90% silver appeared first on Silver Monthly.

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Silver

Silver Morgan Coins: The Complete Buyers Guide

Image of Silver Morgan Dollar1878 – 1921 Silver Morgan Coin Dollars are 90% silver, and is classified as “junk silver” read more about junk silver. Silver Morgan coins are some of the most valuable silver coins.

Some think of silver as “junk” because it is a common metal without the high-dollar value of gold. In fact, investing in silver is not a waste of time for serious silver investors. Junk silver holds value in collective form, even if you’ve been misled by how coin collectors dismiss silver coins for their low value as individual pieces. The value of silver is seen differently by people who invest in silver. Here, we have rated the top 5 best places to buy Morgan silver coins online.

Top 5 Best Places to Buy

1. Best All Around: Jmbullion.com
Jmbullion.com offers silver bars, silver coins, silver rounds, 90 percent and 40 percent silver coins, silver bullets, and shipwreck silver. It’s easy to search the site and explore many kinds of silver coins. All you have to do is click on the image for Silver Dollars and then click on the image for Morgan Silver Dollars. As an individual entering the junk silver investment business, you want to start slow and build relationships with different buyers. On various sites like Jmbullion.com, get a feel for the reliability of sellers by testing them out.

2. Best for 1 Ounce Orders: Silver.com
This site rocks because it meets the needs of every buyer, from small purchases to bulk purchases. Get free shipping on orders over $3,000, and an order usually ships out the day following clearing of your payment. A single ounce bar of silver is a small investment for silver buyers. Pay anywhere from $17 to $33 for a silver bullion bar. Prices vary by brand and fluctuate with the market. Morgan silver dollars are priced by year of mint and begin at about $20 each.

3. Best for Small Orders: Bgasc.com
You might like this site because it is styled to attract buyers in the market for smaller silver purchases, not just large silver purchases. Offering free shipping on orders of $250 or more, here you can get your feet wet as a silver investor. Expect to explore different amounts of silver bars, for example, either by brand or by weight. You get a lower price the more you buy on this website. For example, at one point 1 to 18 silver bars sold for $18.08 each, whereas 500 or more silver bars sold for $17.12 each. It’s also wise to pay less using check or wire transfer methods versus credit card methods.

4. Best for Medium Orders: Providentmetals.com
Medium orders are not for the faint of heart. On this site, make a larger purchase of silver, and you are going to make money by turning around and selling it to the next buyer at an opportune time. This site offers free shipping for orders of $99 or more (a great bargain!) as well as silver charts and sign up for free alerts on silver prices. For example, you could buy 500 Morgan silver dollars for about $8,500 on a good day, give or take. With free alerts, keep your pulse on what the global silver market is doing.

5. Best for Large Orders: Amagimetals.com
Silver investors come to this site for placement of a large order. Some items will not be available in the quantity you want on a given day, but you can diversify. For example, purchase smaller quantities of Morgan silver dollars and monster boxes of silver coins. At one point, monster boxes of Australian Silver, Canadian Maple Leaf, and American Silver Eagle coins were priced respectively at $9,205, $9,280, and $9,420 each. Here, search for products by type, mint/brand, price, condition, composition, denomination, precious metal weight, or year of mint. This site also reveals how much they buy an item for and what your price will be for a given quantity.

It’s fun to buy silver! We hope you enjoyed this review of 5 top silver web sites for different buying interests. Remember, silver prices go up and down, but over time this metal holds great value. Determine the best time to buy and sell silver by monitoring rates per ounce or by product type on a Smartphone or computer.

Silver Morgan Mintage Numbers

Listed below are the mintage numbers for each year. The year column lists the year and mint mark on the coin where, D is for Denver, S is for San Francisco, P is for Philadelphia, O is for New Orleans, and CC for Carson City. Also, a coin without a mint mark means the coin was minted in Philadelphia.

The Mintage column is the number of coins struck and released by the U.S. Mint.

The Numismatic Value Range column represents what people typically pay for that type of coin (usually a very wide price range depending on the condition and demand of the coin).

Date Mintage Numismatic Value
1878 10,500,000
1878-CC 2,212,000
1878-S 9,774,000
1879 14,806,000
1879-CC 756,000
1879-O 2,887,000
1879-S 9,110,000
1880 12,600,000
1880-CC 591,000
1880-O 5,305,000
1880-S 8,900,000
1881 9,162,991
1881-CC 296,000
1881-O 5,708,000
1881-S 12,760,000
1882 11,100,000
1882-CC 1,133,000
1882-O 6,090,000
1882-S 9,250,000
1883 12,290,000
1883-CC 1,204,000
1883-O 8,725,000
1883-S 6,250,000
1884 14,070,000
1884-CC 1,136,000
1884-O 9,730,000
1884-S 3,200,000
1885 17,787,000
1885-CC 228,000
1885-O 9,185,000
1885-S 1,497,000
1886 19,963,000
1886-O 10,710,000
1886-S 750,000
1887 20,290,000
1887-O 11,550,000
1887-S 1,771,000
1888 19,183,000
1888-O 12,150,000
1888-S 657,000
1889 21,726,000
1889-CC 350,000
1889-O 11,875,000
1889-S 700,000
1890 16,802,000
1890-CC 2,309,041
1890-O 10,701,100
1890-S 8,230,373
1891 8,693,556
1891-CC 1,618,000
1891-O 7,954,529
1891-S 5,296,000
1892 1,036,000
1892-CC 1,352,000
1892-O 2,744,000
1892-S 1,200,000
1893 378,000
1893-CC 677,000
1893-O 300,000
1893-S 100,000
1894 110,000
1894-O 1,723,000
1894-S 1,260,000
1895 12,000
1895-O 450,000
1895-S 400,000
1896 9,976,000
1896-O 4,900,000
1896-S 5,000,000
1897 2,822,000
1897-O 4,004,000
1897-S 5,825,000
1898 5,884,000
1898-O 4,400,000
1898-S 4,102,000
1899 330,000
1899-O 12,290,000
1899-S 2,562,000
1900 8,830,000
1900-O 12,590,000
1900-S 3,540,000
1901 6,962,000
1901-O 13,320,000
1901-S 2,284,000
1902 7,994,000
1902-O 8,636,000
1902-S 1,530,000
1903 4,652,000
1903-O 4,450,000
1903-S 1,241,000
1904 2,788,000
1904-O 3,720,000
1904-S 2,304,000
1921 44,690,000
1921-D 20,345,000
1921-S 21,695,000

The post Silver Morgan Coins: The Complete Buyers Guide appeared first on Silver Monthly.

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Silver

Paul Volcker: Remembering the Man Who Pressed the U.S. to Drop the Gold Standard

Paul Volcker racked up many milestones as chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. Most notably, he sought to reverse the inflationary slide of the U.S. by pushing for higher interest rates.

Following Volcker’s death on December 8, 2019, because of complications from prostate cancer, The Washington Post noted that the 92-year-old “left as deep an imprint on the U.S. economy and financial system as has anyone of his generation.”

In honor of Volcker, we recount and remember the important ways he helped shape the economic landscape as we know it.

Volcker’s Gold Market Ties

Even before he assumed the Fed chairmanship, Paul Volcker played a critical role in the gold market. Volcker, then an official at the U.S. Treasury Department, firmly recommended in 1971 that President Richard Nixon remove the U.S. from the gold standard, The Post’s obituary reports.

“In 1971, international investors were dumping dollars, pushing down their [appeal in] the global currency market, and throwing into question the longstanding practice of making dollars convertible to gold at a fixed rate,” relates The Post.

In response, Volcker and George Shultz, then a White House aide, trekked to the Oval Office to urge that Nixon immediately give up the gold standard. Following a powwow from August 13 to 15, 1971, at the Camp David presidential retreat, Nixon embraced Volcker’s advice, opting “to abandon what had been a bedrock of the global financial system,” according to The Post. Volcker and others insisted that “maintaining the dollar’s peg to the price of gold was an untenable policy.”

Nixon announced the gold-standard decision August 15, 1971, on national TV.

After Volcker’s death, Ed Conway, economics editor for the United Kingdom’s Sky News, wrote that eliminating the gold standard “was perhaps the single most important economic decision of the postwar era.”

“It brought an end to fixed exchange rates and ushered in a new era, where a government’s currency was worth what people thought it should be worth, rather than a certain weight of gold,” Conway wrote.

The Impact of Volcker’s “New Order”

So why the change in direction? The international financial system established at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, at the tail end of World War II had crumbled, so Volcker “led the creation of a new order, in which the values of currencies would float freely against each other,” The Post reports. This new order demanded an exit from the gold standard.

“The dollar [was] at the center of the financial system, convertible into gold, with other countries having a fixed exchange rate against the dollar. That whole framework had come under great pressure, and it was clear that something had to be done,” Volcker recalled.

Volcker explained that amid an environment of continuing inflation, the U.S. had to grapple with the reality that the international monetary system had to be altered. One of the vehicles for doing that: suspension of the ability to convert U.S. dollars to gold.

“Foreign governments could no longer exchange their dollars for gold; in effect, the international monetary system turned into a fiat one,” according to a Federal Reserve history of this historic occasion.

The suspension, enacted by Nixon, soon led to the end of the Bretton Woods–designed monetary system.

After Volcker, the Gold Standard Debate Continues

Volcker ultimately credited Arthur Burns, then chairman of the Fed, with vigorously arguing for the abandonment of the gold standard. “It was not a permanent solution, in my mind, but it was a necessary transitional step,” Volcker recalled.

Volcker, who once referred to himself an enemy of gold, said he was surprised that Nixon and Secretary of the Treasury John Connally conveyed suspension of the gold standard as a “great triumph.”

“This was America exhibiting its strength and power, dealing with speculative pressures in an appropriate way and seizing the moment to deal with the price question at home…. The economy responded favorably; the stock market responded favorably,” Volcker said. “There had been very ominous predictions of what would happen to the stock market. The stock market went up instead of down.”

Still, some critics remain displeased with Volcker’s advocacy for getting rid of the gold standard, in part because the U.S. economy continued to reel even after Nixon’s 1971 anti-inflationary moves.

Today, some politicians and analysts would like to see the U.S. return to the gold standard, though. “A gold standard is [one] avenue, among others, to restore our trust in government, by appropriately constraining the discretionary power of government,” the libertarian-oriented Cato Institute think tank has argued.

Call U.S. Money Reserve at 1-844-307-1589 to learn more about the gold standard or changes in today’s gold market.

The post Paul Volcker: Remembering the Man Who Pressed the U.S. to Drop the Gold Standard appeared first on U.S. Money Reserve.

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Silver

Don’t Empty Your Nest Egg to Fill Your Stockings

It’s the most wonderful time of the year, except for your wallet. This relationship has proven to be especially strong in 2019. In fact, the shopping season was breaking records almost as soon as it began.

Americans spent a record $7.4 billion online on Black Friday in 2019.

That doesn’t even factor in what was spent in brick-and-mortar retail stores; number crunchers are still debating that final tally.

Black Friday was followed by “Small Business Saturday,” which raked in more than $3.6 billion. On Cyber Monday this year, consumers spent a record $9.4 billion, which was 18.9% more than they spent on Cyber Monday 2018. The shopping spree began even before Black Friday. On Thanksgiving Day, Americans spent an estimated $4.2 billion online alone.

All that spending doesn’t even include travel costs and other seasonal-related expenses.

Before these huge spending hauls were reported, even before the holiday shopping season began, experts at Harris Insights & Analytics forecasted holiday spending would be 5% higher in 2019 than in 2018. The National Retail Federation reported that U.S. holiday spending totaled $707.5 billion last year. For 2019, Gallup projected that the average American adult was going to spend $920 on gifts this year. This wouldn’t be an issue, except…

Holiday spending is increasing more than salaries are.

In November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that wages increased 3.1% in the preceding 12 months. ADP reported a similar increase of 3.2% for the same period of time according, to its third quarter 2019 Workforce Vitality Report.

This means that the rate at which holiday spending is increasing is faster than the rate income is rising. This indicates that people are spending a bigger percentage of their means this year than they did last year.

Why would people put this much into spending beyond their means? Stress and a sense of obligation may be important factors.

More than 60% of people feel intense pressure to spend on the holidays.

This comes from the 2019 Bankrate Holiday Gifting Survey, an annual study by consumer financial services company Bankrate. By contrast, its 2018 study found around 45% of people were feeling pressured to overspend. This rise in a sense of pressure could explain why people are overspending this year.

I don’t want to rub elbows with the Grinch and Scrooge. I’m not against the holidays. Personally, I love them. Unfortunately, when people get caught up in buying new things, they often lose sight of protecting what they already have. During the most wonderful time of the year, don’t neglect the year-round task of protecting your money.

When you are buying phones that maybe will last about two years before they need to be replaced, take a moment to consider putting your money somewhere more secure for the long term.

The post Don’t Empty Your Nest Egg to Fill Your Stockings appeared first on U.S. Money Reserve.

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Silver

What Does “Heads or Tails” Mean?

Who’s first in line for turkey? Who gets to deal the cards? Who picks tonight’s movie?

You can settle almost anything with a coin flip. Learn about the history of the coin toss, its significance over time, and how we use coin flips today to decide everything from United Kingdom elections to football kickoffs.

What’s the History of the Coin Toss?

Coin tosses have been around for centuries.

Since the Roman Empire and the Middle Ages in Europe, the coin toss has helped people to decide between two options, according to the JSTOR Daily website.

“Known as ‘heads or ships,’ in reference to the images that appeared on the Roman sestertii, the coin toss was a children’s game of chance as well as a gambling game among the patrician elite,” JSTOR Daily says. “Legend has it that Julius Caesar would settle legal disputes with a coin toss.”

In the Middle Ages, children played a version of the coin toss known as “cross and pile.” What we now know as “heads” was the cross, and what we now refer to as “tails” was the pile. Back then, the top of the coin bore the image of a cross, and the reverse side was called the “pile.”

What Does “Heads or Tails” Mean?

These days, coin tosses traditionally rely on a heads-or-tails choice. “Heads or tails” refers to the two sides of a coin, according to the Grammarist website.

“When a decision must be made with two equally viable answers, or two people disagree and must find an equitable way to choose between two answers, a coin may be flipped. As one person tosses the coin in the air, the other person calls either heads or tails,” Grammarist explains. “Heads refers to the side of the coin with a person’s head on it. Tails refers to the opposite side, not because there is a tail on it, but because it is the opposite of heads.”

So when trying to determine who gets to pick a movie for the night, for example, one person will call heads or tails, and a coin will be flipped. If that person calls “heads,” and the heads side of the coin appears face up, then he’s the winner—meaning he gets to pick the movie. But if that person calls “tails” and the heads side of the coin appears face up, then he’s the loser—meaning he doesn’t get to pick the movie.

How Are Coin Tosses Commonly Used?

From pigskin to politics, the coin toss has become a fixture in everyday life.

According to the Pro Football Hall of Fame, the coin toss in professional American football dates back to 1892. It’s also a mainstay in college and high school football, as well as numerous other sports. A referee and team captains gather at the center of the field for coin tosses.

A coin toss happens at the beginning of a football game to figure out which team gets possession of the football. It also occurs for the same reason at the outset of an overtime period.

As FOX Sports explains, unless the winner of the toss defers their choice to the second half, that team must choose one of two privileges. The loser is given the other privilege. Those two privileges are the opportunity to kick the ball to the other team or to receive the kickoff and to pick which end of the field the team will defend.

Perhaps the most critical coin toss in football happens during the NFL’s Super Bowl. It’s so important, in fact, that football fans place bets on which team will win the toss. By the way, a specially minted coin is made solely for each Super Bowl coin toss.

Sports fields aren’t the only places where you’ll see coin tosses.

In several elections in the U.S. and the U.K., coin tosses have determined winners and losers. For instance:

  • In 2007, Christopher Underwood-Frost, a politician in the eastern England county of Lincolnshire, kept his seat on the West Lindsey District Council thanks to the favorable toss of a coin.
  • In 2017, Republican Michael Ermita and Democrat Kim Miller garnered the same number of votes for a city council seat in Bolton, Connecticut. A coin toss awarded the seat to Ermita.
  • In Iowa, election officials employ coin tosses to break ties in delegate counts during presidential caucuses.

Famous Coin Tosses

But two of the possibly most crucial coin tosses in U.S. history had nothing to do with politics.

According to The Telegraph newspaper of London, the naming of what now is Portland, Oregon, came down to a coin toss.

Asa Lovejoy and Francis Pettygrove, who both owned the land that would become Portland, each wanted to name the new town after their respective hometowns: Boston, Massachusetts, and Portland, Maine. Pettygrove prevailed in the 1845 coin toss, and the Oregon city was christened Portland.

Another momentous coin toss took place in December 1903, when the Wright brothers flipped a coin to see which one of the pair would take flight at Kill Devil Hills, North Carolina, in the first-ever powered aircraft. Wilbur Wright won the toss. However, Orville Wright’s subsequent trip was deemed the first powered flight, according to The Telegraph. In 2013, the U.S. Mint released three commemorative coins—$10 gold, $1 silver, and 50ٴ¢ clad coins—to mark the 100th anniversary of the Wright brothers’ aeronautical feat.

“The coin flip seems like a simple, mundane act,” FlipACoin.com observes. “However, coin flipping can provide a wealth of insights on probability, statistics, and human history.”

Don’t leave your financial future up to a coin toss. Partner with U.S. Money Reserve to learn more about the power of precious metals.

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Silver

2019 in Review

2019 was a very big year both personally and professionally for me and our company.  The changes were big, and almost all of them for the better.  Personally, I am happy to say that my family and I have never been in a better place, we spend more time together and focused on the important things like Faith, Values and Communication. On the professional side, we made significant strides in technology, infrastructure and personnel that have allowed us to hit the ground running in 2020.

I hear people every year tell me they struggle to grasp the year change when they are signing documents, writing checks or any other instance where they are required to manually write the year in the course of their daily activity.  Fortunately for me, I am eager to tackle the new year each and every year as a means to continually move myself, my family and my business forward.

U.S. Money Reserve and our clients saw a lot of movement by countries, institutions and the masses towards precious metals as a means to hedge and/or protect their financial futures.

Gold had its best performance since 2010.

People who owned gold last year reaped amazing benefits. The spot price of gold was $1,282.90/oz. at the beginning of 2019. At the end of 2019, it rose more than 18%, to $1,514.75/oz. For the average gold owner, this could have huge implications for their retirement plans, their savings for their kids, or simply for their financial safety net.

Overall, 2019 was the best year for the yellow metal since 2010, when gold was still riding high in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.

A lot of reasons added to this past year’s rise, most notably interest in gold as a safeguard against economic uncertainty. Events such as the trade war between the United States and China and the Brexit situation contributed to this uncertainty. More uncertainty seems like it could follow because while a “phase one” trade deal is in place and a new Brexit deal is poised to pass Parliament, much remains unresolved.

Events such as these drove the actions of the most powerful buyers in the world.

Central banks bought more than 562 metric tons of gold in 2019.

Central banks across the world felt the need to purchase gold. For example, the central banks of China and Russia bought around 251 metric tons of gold in 2019. The single largest buyer of gold was Turkey’s central bank, which bought 144.8 metric tons. Banks’ appetites for gold were so ferocious that the Central Bank Gold Agreements, which had limited the amount of gold that banks were allowed to sell off, were completely scrapped and deemed irrelevant.

This shopping spree could make the gold in the hands of Americans more valuable. It also doesn’t appear likely to end soon. Goldman Sachs looks for global central banks to collectively acquire around 650 metric tons of gold in 2020, while Standard Chartered is projecting central-bank purchases will total 525 metric tons.

As all of this was happening, another precious metal was having an especially memorable 2019.

Palladium’s price rose 60% in 2019.

This dramatic rally was spurred by two factors. First, demand increased as countries such as China implemented new rules requiring car manufacturers to install catalytic convertors on their cars. These devices clean pollution from emissions and require palladium to work.

Secondly, palladium’s supply was under extreme stress. The metal already has only limited sources. Most palladium comes as a byproduct of platinum mining, and most of that comes from either South Africa or Russia. During this past year, the mines in South Africa suffered from a series of issues that greatly diminished their ability to export the metal. Together, these factors pushed the price of palladium to astronomic highs. Palladiums owners are reaping these great benefits.

Both gold and palladium demonstrated extraordinary performance in 2019. All the fundamentals that led to those performances are still in play.

2020 looks like it will be a great year for precious metals owners.

Central banks have no reason to stop buying gold. Many outlets and professionals are predicting that uncertainty is poised to push all the precious metals higher in 2020, in fact many believe the actions of 2019 are beginning to look like the sturdy foundation for an even more impressive 2020.

So, whether you are an institution, a patriarch or a parent you should consider protecting your family and future by diversifying your portfolio before prices go even higher.

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Silver

A Sweet, Succinct History of the Gold Maple Leaf Coin

The U.S. and Canada share a rich history of collaboration and partnership. Today the two countries enjoy one of the best trading relationships in the world. We also share something else—an appreciation for gold coins.

Let’s take a moment to honor one of the most popular gold bullion coins in North America—the Canadian Gold Maple Leaf coin. Learn how this coin came to be and about its significance to both countries.

Canada Launches the Gold Maple Leaf Coin

In 2019, the Gold Maple Leaf Coin marked its 40th anniversary. The Royal Canadian Mint introduced the 1-ounce coin in 1979. At the time, the purity of the coin’s gold was 99.9%. Back then, South African Krugerrands were the only pure gold bullion coins being minted anywhere in the world.

Four years after the coin’s debut, in 1983, the Mint raised the bar by lifting the Maple Leaf’s gold purity standard to 99.99%. This coin made history as the first bullion coin to be struck from 99.99% pure gold. Not to be outdone, the Mint raised the coin’s gold standard to 99.999% in 2007.

Today, the Canadian Gold Maple Leaf Coin remains highly regarded for its purity and quality. It’s considered the premier product of the Royal Canadian Mint, and it’s one of the most sought-after coins in the U.S.

The Gold Maple Leaf Coin’s Evolution

The back of the coin, with a $50 face value, still bears the original maple leaf design created by master engraver Walter Ott. The maple leaf reigns as the unofficial emblem of Canada.

The front of the coin depicts Queen Elizabeth II. It’s the first coin to show the queen without a crown. Canadian artist Susanna Blunt produced the most recent portrait of the queen to grace the coin.

In 2019, the Royal Canadian Mint marked the 40th anniversary of the Gold Maple Leaf Coin with a special edition of the coin. The Mint boasts that this is the “world’s best gold bullion coin.”

“When it began in 1979 as a trial project to transform Canadian gold…few could have predicted the runaway success and staying power of the highly acclaimed Gold Maple Leaf bullion coin, with nearly 30 million ounces sold to date,” the Mint reported in February 2019.

In 2012, the Mint announced it was permanently adding a visual security feature to the coin. The security mark consists of a textured maple leaf that’s micro-engraved with laser technology on a small area of the reverse (maple leaf) side of the coin. In the center of the mark is a two-digit numeral denoting the year of issue (such as “19” for 2019). The numeral is visible only when it’s magnified.

“By introducing an unprecedented visual security feature to our world-famous Gold Maple Leaf bullion coin, we are proud to offer precious metal [enthusiasts] a gold bullion coin [that] is a world leader in its security as well as its purity,” the Mint said in 2012.

Are you wondering where to buy Canadian gold coins? At U.S. Money Reserve, of course! Buy the renowned Gold Maple Leaf bullion coin online or call 1-844-307-1589 today.

The post A Sweet, Succinct History of the Gold Maple Leaf Coin appeared first on U.S. Money Reserve.

Categories
Silver

Silver Price Forecast 2020

silver price forecast 2020

As noted in our 2019 silver price forecast, an ounce of silver went for $15.47 on December 31, 2018. As we expected when we declared 2019 a bright year for silver, the price of silver jumped +15% in 2019. During the year, silver prices have reached highs of over $19.50 an ounce and settled in around $18 an ounce in the last trading days of December. Now that the new year is here, it’s time to look at the silver price forecasts for 2020.

Price of Silver Forecast for 2020

Are the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 good times to buy gold and silver? To make an informed decision, it helps to begin by looking at the many ways silver gets used, the relationship between supply and demand, and finally, industry analysts’ estimates for the expected price of silver in 2020.

Silver Supply vs. Demand for 2020

These three general areas spark most of today’s demand for silver:

  • Industry: Just about 60 percent of the yearly supply of sliver goes for such industrial applications as solar panels, electric car parts, and other electrical components.
  • Jewelry and silverware: Of course, the jewelry and silverware industries rely upon silver for its appearance, characteristics, and relatively low price when compared to other precious metals.
  • Investments: The rest of the silver supply mostly gets pressed into bullion coins and bars. Typically, investors purchase these items from government or private mints or on the secondary market from other investors or dealers. Silver may be bought and sold as physical objects or as assets held by funds.

The latest report from The Silver Institute tracked silver supply and demand through 2018. In the last year of the survey, the global supply of silver was 1,004.3 million ounces. At the same time, the physical demand equaled 1033.5 million ounces. This created a deficit of several million ounces.

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It’s worth noting that unlike other precious metals, production uses actually account for the greatest portion of silver demand. The increase in demand for production silver has typically been modest but consistent.

For instance, The Silver Institute reported these changes in demand for the decade before and including 2018:

  • The demand for silver for jewelry and silverware increased about 39 million ounces.
  • The demand for industrial silver increased about 50 million ounces.
  • While use for photography has declined by about 36 million ounces, it has increased for use in solar cells from 0 to 80 million ounces.
  • Minting coins and bars has increased demand by over 100 million ounces.

Anticipating the Expected Price of Silver in 2020 for Investors

Industrial Demand

Increased demand for production silver typically comes from industrial expansion. For instance, a scholarly report on Science Daily found that increased production of solar panels has positively impacted demand for silver, as well as prices.

On the other hand, the average silver prices from the charts provided by The Silver Institute don’t directly correlate to supply deficiencies and surpluses. For instance, the average price per ounce was higher in 2016 than 2018, but the supply deficit in 2016 was actually smaller. Production use of silver—and more generally, supply and demand—provides a sort of support for silver’s price but doesn’t tell the whole story.

world silver supply and demand

Safe-Haven Demand

As explained on Market Watch, investors may consider industrial and manufacturing use of silver, but that’s not their primary motivation for buying it or any other precious metal. They consider their investment purchase a sort of insurance premium against market upheavals. Market Watch offered examples of events or concerns that could influence the price of silver in 2020. These could include predictions or uncertainty about the following issues:

  • Interest rate changes.
  • Unexpected downturns in other markets.
  • Political or economic instability.
  • Fluctuations in currency values.
  • Changes in other precious metals prices.

Of course, nobody has a crystal ball to know exactly what events will transpire in 2020. It’s helpful to look at the silver forecast from industry analysts and experts to explore some potential scenarios.

Industry Expert Silver Price Predictions 2020

Industry Experts 2020 Silver Price Prediction (per ounce)
Keith Neumeyer (CEO, First Majestic Silver) $130
EB Tucker (Director, Metalla Royalty & Streaming) $20+
FocusEconomics (Economists) $16.60
LongForecast.com (Forecasting Agency) $22
Degussa Analysts $23
Johann Wiebe (Analyst, Thomson Reuters) $17.50

Price predictions/forecasts last updated on 12/13/2019

  • The CEO of First Majestic Silver, Keith Neumeyer, may have made the most bullish price of silver forecast for 2020. He anticipated moves up to $130 an ounce. He believes that silver should be unlinked from other precious metals, like gold, and considered more of a strategic metal because of its industrial applications for electronics and solar power.[1]
  • In contrast, Metalla Royalty & Streaming director, EB Tucker, sees a tighter link between silver and gold. He said that a recent rally in gold means that silver will also move up soon. He predicts a more modest rise in the price of silver to over $20 an ounce, which would still be a substantial increase.1
  • FocusEconomics predicted a price of just $16.60 in the last quarter of 2020. However, that price still anticipated growth at the time they made it. Also, they believed that silver would sit at $15.80 in this last quarter of 2019, and the price is already well over that.1
  • Longforecast.com, a forecasting agency, believes the price of silver will be moderately volatile in 2020 and beyond. Still, they believe the average price as soon as January may peak at over $22 an ounce and generally stay over $20 an ounce through the year.[2]
  • Analysts from the European precious metals firm Degussa see silver prices rallying in 2020 to $23 an ounce.[3]

Financial Institution Silver Price Forecasts 2020

Financial Institution 2020 Silver Price Prediction (per ounce)
Goldman Sachs $18.00
Bank of America $17.54
The Bank of Montreal $18.60
Commerzbank $18.50

Price predictions/forecasts last updated on 12/13/2019

  • Goldman Sachs foresees strong investment demand for silver eclipsing a slight contraction in industrial consumption, pushing silver prices to a healthy $18 an ounce in the new year.[4]
  • Bank of America’s Precious Metals Strategist, Michael Widmer, thinks silver looks fundamentally better than gold due to a shift in global reflation that could drive industrial demand. He predicts the white metal to fetch $17.54 an ounce in 2020.[5]
  • The Bank of Montreal adjusted an earlier forecast for 2020 up to $18.60 an ounce. This was over 20 percent more than their original prediction.
  • Commerzbank analysts assert that continued loose monetary policy and “negative yields on a significant chunk of global debt” will send gold prices soaring, lifting those for silver along with them. The Bank’s analysts predict $18.50 an ounce silver in 2020.[6]

What’s the Price of Silver Outlook for 2020?

silver bars on chart

Some people refer to silver as poor man’s gold for a couple of reasons. First, the price of an ounce of silver is much cheaper than the price of an ounce of gold. Still, most analysts believe these two metals are linked, and price changes in one of these precious metals generally reflect prices changes in the other.

Some analysts argue that silver should be uncoupled from other bullion because of its industrial applications and the recent supply deficits. For example, silver demand reached a three-year peak in 2018; however, supply fell.[7]  In that respect, silver may be vastly undervalued when compared to gold.

No matter which perspective is correct, investors rely upon silver for the same basic reasons that they purchase other precious metals. They want to use the metals as portfolio insurance in case other markets don’t perform as anticipated. Generally, the price reflects that behavior as much as it does industrial demand, if not more.

It is impossible to say exactly what will happen during 2020 or beyond. However, silver still looks like a good buy, especially with the disparity between supply and demand over the past few years.

Share Your Silver Price Prediction for 2020:

How to Add Silver to Your Portfolio in 2020

If you hope to find a good deal on precious metals, silver appears to provide it. Prices have made steady progress in the past year, but industry analysts believe it has room to grow. Not only will you buy a metal that’s precious to investors, it’s also a material with many uses for production.

To protect portfolios, learn more about investing in silver and even how to add silver to an IRA.

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Silver

The Bond Yield Curve Is “FLASHING CODE RED” For a Recession

flashing code red light

The father of the yield curve indicator encourages investors, business executives, and consumers to prepare now!

This is the time where you need to reflect upon your strategy. It’s actually easy to manage assets when the economy is booming. It’s much more difficult to manage into a turning point.
–Campbell Harvey[1]

Key Points

  • Inverted yield curve is a ‘flashing code red’ sign a recession is imminent, asserts father of the yield curve indicator, Campbell Harvey.
  • The return of Quantitative Easing “Permanent Open Market Operations” suggests the Fed is preparing for the next downturn.[2]
  • Noted Wall Street economist and the United Nation’s trade and development body, Unctad, forecast recession in 2020.[3][4]
  • Stock market meltdown predicted to hit in Q4 of 2019.

“Recession is coming.” “We’re reaching the recession tipping point.” “Expect a major recession soon.”

Market participants and economists’ recession chants grow louder and louder each year the record-long expansion hurtles on.

Now, however, such predictions are backed by more than mere words:

  • Inverted yield curves.
  • Manufacturing recession.[5]
  • Consumer spending slowdown.[6]
  • QE Fed Bond Buying.

And it gets even worse: before the long-term market hemorrhaging begins, a huge stock sell-off is predicted to rattle investors.

LOSSES. LOSSES. LOSSESS. That’s what UNPREPARED investors can expect from here on out.

Don’t be one of them. Learn how to protect your wealth from the coming downturn below.

Inverted Yield Curves Flashing Code Red for a Recession

code red bond yield curve

Last August, the spread between the much-watched 2- and 10-year Treasury bonds inverted briefly, a signal to many market participants a recession is coming. An even stronger sign, however, comes from the yield for the 3-month Treasury, which has been above the 10-year since last May.

When the yield curve remains inverted for three months or longer, it’s a reliable indicator of a downturn within the next 6 to 18 months, explained Campbell Harvey, a Duke University professor and the researcher who first uncovered the correlation between inverted bond yield curves and recessions.

How reliable? The past seven recessions were preceded by an inverted yield curve.

The relationship between yield curve inversions and economic downturns was also noted in a 1996 New York Fed paper and by Chairman Jerome Powell this year.

Harvey pointed out another sign of the coming recession: in a Duke University survey on CFO sentiment, 50 percent of respondents said they expected a recession in 2020, and 85 percent projected economic contraction in 2021.

Corporations and consumers still have time to prepare, but they’d better start now, suggested Harvey:

It’s risk management. You need to look ahead and plan. And, you need to use all of the information—not just the yield curve. But, other information in the economy to make the best possible plan so you survive a slowdown.
–Campbell Harvey

Fed Resumes QE “Permanent Open Market Operations”

federal reserve building

Neither the recent technical issues nor the purchases of Treasury bills we are contemplating to resolve them should materially affect the stance of monetary policy. … In no sense, is this QE.’ — Fed Chairman Jerome Powell

These were Powell’s comments following his September announcement the Federal Reserve would be purchasing Treasury bills again in response to volatility in the repo market. He added the Fed had mentioned plans last March to increase its ‘security holdings to maintain appropriate level of reserves.’

However, other Fed actions suggest the latest move may be more in line with monetary easing. The FOMC slashed interest rates twice this year amid a sluggish global economy and U.S.-China trade war and is likely to cut them again in its October 29th-30th meeting from the current target range of 1.75 percent to 2 percent.[7]

Then there’s the sheer volume of projected Fed Treasury purchases:

Upcoming Fed Treasury Purchases

fed treasury purchases

Such numbers contradict this statement from Powell:

‘I want to emphasize that growth of our balance sheet for reserve management purposes should in no way be confused with the large-scale asset purchase programs that we deployed after the financial crisis.’

Powell’s announcement of the return to QE “Permanent Open Market Operations” are especially concerning in light of recent findings from the Bank of International Settlements:

‘Central bank stimulus is distorting financial markets.’

How? By squeezing liquidity in some markets, increasing levels of bank reserves, and reducing the number of bonds available for investors to buy and market operators actively trading in some areas.[8]

Campbell Harvey echoed the BIS’ statement in concern to interest rates:

“The central banks have distorted the interest rates and, I think, we’re going to pay for it in the future. It just doesn’t make a lot of sense. I was talking to someone last week from Denmark who gets paid for their mortgage. That is just highly distortionary.”[9]

Consumer Spending in Sustained Decline

empty pockets

‘Let me boil it down: a recession is not imminent. It’s not right here. But it is certainly on the table. You can’t take it off the table. There’s a lot of data kind of edging in the wrong direction. And I’m just concerned about this super optimistic story that the consumer is going to bail us out even though manufacturing is really decelerating.’ — Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute

Everything is slowing: job growth, manufacturing, and, yes, consumer spending. Trump’s tax cuts and rebuilding after Hurricane Harvey contributed to a ‘cyclical upturn’ in spending growth in 2016 and 2017. But, since then, it’s been in a sustained decline and is now at an approximately 2½-year low, with the exception of the sharp drop in December 2018.

real consumer spending growth

The outlook for consumer spending isn’t great, either. Corporate and consumer sentiment surveys suggest plans to purchase big-ticket items have reached pre-recession levels.

‘See, when you’re in a growth rate cycle downturn and it’s decelerating, deteriorating, that’s when you have a yellow flag on recession risk. You have to take it seriously,’ said Achuthan.

Manufacturing Plunged into Recession

usa and china tariffs

The magnitude of the loss we’re seeing from tariffs far outweighs the benefits of the tax cuts.
—Jim Springer, chief financial officer of Industrial Nut Corp. in Sandusky, Ohio

A pullback for two quarters in a row is defined as a recession, and it’s gripped the manufacturing sector, reveal Federal Reserve measurements.

Declines in new orders, production, and inventories contributed to a contraction in manufacturing not seen since June 2009, according to a widely followed purchasing managers’ index.

The September jobs report reveals a decline in total factory employment. Reports out of Michigan and Pennsylvania show a spike in layoff announcements this year.

Transportation and warehousing industries are already starting to feel the pullback.

How long until the contraction dominos into the services sector and general economy?[10]

Corporate Profit Margins Falling

stressed business executive

With a backdrop of weak profit expectations, the trade uncertainty poses serious challenges for business planning. In an environment of much stronger profit margins, the same trade uncertainty would likely pose less of a deterrent.
—Stephen Gallagher

Accompanying a pullback in consumer spending and manufacturing is a decline in U.S. nonfinancial corporation profit margins: after peaking to 15.2 percent of gross value added in 2015, they dropped to 10.9 percent last quarter.

Falling Corporate Profit Margins

falling corporate profit margins

Stephen Gallagher, the chief U.S. economist for Societe Generale and winner of MarketWatch’s recent Forecaster of the Month contest, argues that eroding corporate profit margins will trigger a recession in 2020.

This has been the case in the past: near the end of a cycle, sales flatten, operating costs rise, and managers reduce payrolls because they’re unable “to roll with the punches” when profits are thin. As consumer earnings shrink so too does their spending.[11]

U.N. Warns of “Deeper and Long Running Threats” to Global Economy

global recession

The slowdown in growth in all the major developed economies, including the US, confirms that relying on easy monetary policy and asset price rises to stimulate demand produces, at best, ephemeral growth, while tax cuts for corporations and wealthy individuals fail to trigger productive investment.
—Unctad, the trade and development body of the United Nations

There’s no doubt a global recession is upon us, but the UN warns there is more to worry about than a temporary economic contraction.

In the short-term, “trade wars, currency gyrations, the possibility of a no-deal Brexit and movements in long-term interest rates” are taking their toll on global growth, which is set to fall from 3 percent in 2018 to 2.3 percent in 2019. Not since the 1.7 percent drop in 2009 has growth been so weak.

And the interest rate cuts, negative interest rates, and creation of money via quantitative easing—central banks’ ‘go-to policies’ since the last financial crisis—will serve as a weak palliative this time around (Read “What Is a Negative Interest Rate?”). In fact, the UN was “pessimistic about the chances of success” of these measures in its report.

Why? Macrostructural challenges predating even the last financial crisis: the softening of investment; stagnant wages; decreasing public spending; debt bubbles; and environmental issues stemming from the “unsustainable increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.”

As the global economy, still fragile from the last market crash, enters the next downturn, the UN is urging central banks to focus on these issues instead of ‘stock prices, quarterly earnings and investor confidence.’[12]

Massive Stock Sell-Off Predicted Before Recession Hits

stock market selloff

Investors may not have to wait until the recession hits in 2020 to start seeing losses. Remember the huge stock sell-off last December? Expect the same stock market volatility this time around, warns Raoul Pal, a Goldman Sachs alumnus and author of the Global Macro Investor newsletter, a publication the largest hedge funds in the world follow.

Pal cites three reasons why a market meltdown is likely in the final quarter of the year:

  1. Companies’ Blackout Period: share buy backs usually decline around earnings time.
  2. Repo Market Problems: the settlement of Treasury debt purchases, coupled with corporate tax payments, briefly shot short-term interest rates through the roof.[13]
  3. Baby Boomers’ IRA Requirements: when Americans born between the mid 1940s and mid 1960s—the so-called “Baby Boomers”—reach 70.5 years old, they must meet an annual requirement to sell approximately 5 percent of their IRAs, some of which are heavy on stocks.

‘The problem is the gap between this year and last year is huge. It’s like 50% increase in the amount of selling that has to be done. They have to start selling by year-end. If you take out the Christmas week and you’re a financial adviser, and you want to get this done early, you will start in October,’ explained Pal. 14

How Can Investors Prepare for the Market Meltdown and Recession?

precious metals rise chart

Markets have historically fluctuated from periods of expansion to ones of contraction, and the economic indicators discussed above suggest another downturn is upon us.

But this time may be different. Vulnerabilities predating the last crash and exacerbated by the unprecedented monetary policy measures taken to recover from it could make the next financial crisis worse than 2008.

With the predicted stock sell-off this quarter, the outlook for investors who keep all of their wealth in the market is increasingly grim.

Now is the time to protect your profits. Learn how to add Wealth Insurance to your portfolio.

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